04
Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Brier score
0.1096
across 274 resolved positions · lower is better
Skill vs own base rate
+55%
beating a trader who only knew how often they win
Calibration error
1.6pp
average gap between price paid and what happened
Win rate
59%
162 of 274 paid out
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 45 | 3% | 2% | −1pp |
| 10–25% | 25 | 17% | 20% | +3pp |
| 25–40% | 21 | 32% | 33% | +2pp |
| 40–60% | 38 | 49% | 50% | +1pp |
| 60–75% | 26 | 67% | 65% | −2pp |
| 75–90% | 27 | 84% | 81% | −2pp |
| 90–100% | 92 | 97% | 99% | +1pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
Open exposure
$70
49 open positions
Largest position
27%
share of open capital in one contract
Half the book
10
positions hold half the exposure
Unrealised
−$8
against $70 of open value
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$35 across 274 positions, with $4 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open? — Yes | 0.5100 | lost | 2 | −$1 |
| Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 3–4%? — No | 0.9990 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 10 and 12 million views on day 1? — Yes | 0.5600 | lost | 2 | −$1 |
| Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get less than 6 million views on day 1? — No | 0.9960 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 14 and 16 million views on day 1? — No | 0.9440 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 8 and 10 million views on day 1? — No | 0.8600 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 12 and 14 million views on day 1? — Yes | 0.2490 | won | 4 | $3 |
| Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 16 million or more views on day 1? — No | 0.9630 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 10 and 12 million views on day 1? — No | 0.4900 | won | 2 | $1 |
| Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 6 and 8 million views on day 1? — No | 0.9910 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Spread: Valencia CF (-1.5) — RC Celta de Vigo | 0.7900 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026? — Yes | 0.2800 | lost | 4 | −$1 |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026? — Yes | 0.0970 | lost | 10 | −$1 |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on August 18? — No | 0.9500 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on August 18? — No | 0.9990 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C or higher on August 18? — No | 0.9800 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on August 18? — No | 0.8300 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 18? — No | 0.8800 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026? — No | 0.8000 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 18? — Yes | 0.1600 | lost | 6 | −$1 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 18? — Yes | 0.0359 | lost | 28 | −$1 |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on August 18? — Yes | 0.1200 | lost | 8 | −$1 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 18? — Yes | 0.1600 | won | 6 | $5 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 18? — Yes | 0.0190 | lost | 53 | −$1 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 7°C on August 18? — No | 0.9990 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 18? — Yes | 0.0700 | lost | 14 | −$1 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 18? — No | 0.9900 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 18? — No | 0.9900 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 18? — No | 0.4700 | won | 2 | $1 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 18? — No | 0.9400 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on August 18? — No | 0.9600 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 18? — No | 0.9990 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C or higher on August 18? — No | 0.9990 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 6°C or below on August 18? — No | 0.9990 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026? — No | 0.2400 | lost | 4 | −$1 |
| Will Eric Yonce be the FL-06 Democratic nominee? — Yes | 0.6200 | won | 2 | $1 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on August 18? — No | 0.9700 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 38°C or higher on August 18? — No | 0.9990 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on August 18? — No | 0.6400 | won | 2 | $1 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 18? — No | 0.9400 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 18? — No | 0.9800 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 18? — No | 0.4900 | lost | 2 | −$1 |
| Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on August 18? — No | 0.9200 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 18? — No | 0.9600 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on August 18? — No | 0.9900 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on August 18? — No | 0.9990 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026? — Yes | 0.4700 | lost | 2 | −$1 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026? — No | 0.9500 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will "Don't Say Good Luck" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? — Yes | 0.3000 | won | 3 | $2 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 17? — No | 0.9500 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on August 17? — No | 0.9570 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 17? — No | 0.9980 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 17? — No | 0.9900 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on August 17? — No | 0.9900 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 17? — Yes | 0.0400 | lost | 25 | −$1 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on August 17? — No | 0.8100 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 17? — No | 0.6000 | won | 2 | $1 |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on August 17? — Yes | 0.4000 | won | 3 | $2 |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 17? — No | 0.8900 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET — Up | 0.5100 | lost | 2 | −$1 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →