Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.2186

across 184 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+12%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

4.9pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

45%

83 of 184 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	3	3%	0%	−3pp
10–25%	10	18%	20%	+2pp
25–40%	43	34%	30%	−3pp
40–60%	70	50%	43%	−7pp
60–75%	46	66%	63%	−3pp
75–90%	11	80%	73%	−7pp
90–100%	1	92%	100%	+8pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$20.9K

6 open positions

Largest position

66%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

position holds half the exposure

Unrealised

$2.8K

against $20.9K of open value

66% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$125.9K across 184 positions, with $2.7K of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Winston-Salem Open: James Duckworth vs Arthur Fery — James Duckworth	0.4200	lost	4,162	−$1.7K
Set Handicap: Sakamoto (-1.5) vs Muller (+1.5) — Muller	0.6000	lost	605	−$363
Winston-Salem Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs James Duckworth — James Duckworth	0.4500	won	12,487	$6.9K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Rei Sakamoto vs Alexandre Muller — Alexandre Muller	0.3575	lost	17,573	−$6.3K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Marco Cecchinato — Marco Cecchinato	0.3236	lost	26,649	−$8.6K
Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Sebastian Baez — Sebastian Baez	0.5900	lost	8,855	−$5.2K
Winston-Salem Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Quentin Halys — Quentin Halys	0.6199	lost	7,535	−$4.7K
Winston-Salem Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Martin Damm — Daniil Medvedev	0.7600	lost	5,595	−$4.3K
Winston-Salem Open: Hugo Grenier vs Sebastian Baez — Hugo Grenier	0.2083	lost	4,874	−$1.0K
Winston-Salem Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Adolfo Vallejo — Adolfo Vallejo	0.4200	lost	8,103	−$3.4K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Alex Bolt vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz — Pablo Llamas Ruiz	0.6548	won	5,020	$1.7K
Winston-Salem Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Francisco Comesana — Francisco Comesana	0.5109	lost	4,191	−$2.1K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ugo Blanchet — Ugo Blanchet	0.3080	lost	188	−$58
Set Handicap: Svrcina (-1.5) vs Alves (+1.5) — Svrcina	0.5538	won	3,727	$1.7K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Felipe Meligeni Alves — Dalibor Svrcina	0.7800	won	2,619	$576
Set Handicap: Wong (-1.5) vs Moeller (+1.5) — Wong	0.5338	lost	785	−$419
US Open, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Elmer Moeller — Coleman Wong	0.7416	won	6,683	$1.7K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Kimmer Coppejans vs Jurij Rodionov — Jurij Rodionov	0.5968	won	16,139	$6.5K
Winston-Salem Open: Roman Safiullin vs Hugo Grenier — Roman Safiullin	0.8136	lost	6,734	−$5.5K
Set Handicap: Safiullin (-1.5) vs Grenier (+1.5) — Safiullin	0.5800	lost	973	−$564
Winston-Salem Open: Martin Damm vs Abedallah Shelbayh — Martin Damm	0.7108	won	11,558	$3.3K
Quebec City: Taro Daniel vs Jacob Fearnley — Taro Daniel	0.3334	won	20,964	$14.0K
Quebec City: Jesper de Jong vs Hugo Gaston — Jesper de Jong	0.6050	lost	16,867	−$10.2K
Quebec City: Benjamin Bonzi vs Luca Van Assche — Luca Van Assche	0.5656	won	21,518	$9.3K
Cincinnati Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances Tiafoe — Frances Tiafoe	0.4700	won	8,904	$4.7K
Cancun: Vit Kopriva vs Gauthier Onclin — Vit Kopriva	0.5600	won	2,548	$1.1K
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) — Auger-Aliassime	0.4400	lost	1,023	−$450
Cincinnati Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime — Felix Auger-Aliassime	0.6597	lost	6,330	−$4.2K
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jakub Mensik — Thiago Agustin Tirante	0.3317	won	18,200	$12.2K
Cincinnati Open: Alexander Zverev vs Tommy Paul — Alexander Zverev	0.6900	lost	3,075	−$2.1K
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Tirante (+1.5) — Tirante	0.5974	won	799	$322
Cincinnati Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Felix Auger-Aliassime — Felix Auger-Aliassime	0.8000	won	5,574	$1.1K
Kingston: Harold Mayot vs Gustavo Heide — Gustavo Heide	0.5174	lost	19,239	−$10.0K
Cincinnati Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Martin Landaluce — Thiago Agustin Tirante	0.5615	won	8,209	$3.6K
Cincinnati Open: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Flavio Cobolli — Miomir Kecmanovic	0.4600	lost	15,994	−$7.4K
Cincinnati Open: Terence Atmane vs Tomas Etcheverry — Tomas Etcheverry	0.3800	lost	400	−$152
Cincinnati Open: Christopher O'Connell vs Kamil Majchrzak — Christopher OConnell	0.3800	lost	3,641	−$1.4K
Cincinnati Open: Hamad Medjedovic vs Marco Trungelliti — Marco Trungelliti	0.3460	won	27,362	$17.9K
Set 1 Winner: Medjedovic vs Trungelliti — Trungelliti	0.3889	won	1,276	$780
Set Handicap: Medjedovic (-1.5) vs Trungelliti (+1.5) — Trungelliti	0.5800	won	1,339	$562
Cincinnati Open: Coleman Wong vs Daniel Altmaier — Coleman Wong	0.5692	lost	9,052	−$5.2K
Cincinnati Open: Tomas Machac vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Pablo Carreno Busta	0.5176	won	11,732	$5.7K
Cincinnati Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Adrian Mannarino — Adrian Mannarino	0.3800	lost	28,973	−$11.0K
Cincinnati Open: Cameron Norrie vs Dino Prizmic — Cameron Norrie	0.6100	won	15,000	$5.8K
National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs Ben Shelton — Ben Shelton	0.6300	won	116	$43
National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Brandon Nakashima — Brandon Nakashima	0.3300	won	10,502	$7.0K
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Tien (+1.5) — Paul	0.4000	lost	69	−$28
National Bank Open: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca — Casper Ruud	0.4321	lost	23,639	−$10.2K
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Atmane (+1.5) — Atmane	0.5700	lost	23	−$13
National Bank Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Thiago Agustin Tirante — Thiago Agustin Tirante	0.4600	won	10,000	$5.4K
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Droguet (+1.5) — Nakashima	0.5100	lost	20,000	−$10.2K
National Bank Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet — Brandon Nakashima	0.7100	won	49	$14
National Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Juncheng Shang — Juncheng Shang	0.5300	lost	8,855	−$4.7K
National Bank Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Botic van de Zandschulp — Daniil Medvedev	0.7500	lost	5,062	−$3.8K
National Bank Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Alejandro Tabilo — Hubert Hurkacz	0.5900	won	20,000	$8.2K
National Bank Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Taylor Fritz — Thiago Agustin Tirante	0.1673	won	4,590	$3.8K
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Tirante (+1.5) — Tirante	0.3900	won	56	$34
National Bank Open: Alex Michelsen vs Francisco Cerundolo — Alex Michelsen	0.6100	won	16,719	$6.5K
National Bank Open: Valentin Vacherot vs Mariano Navone — Mariano Navone	0.3700	won	24,993	$15.7K
National Bank Open: Nuno Borges vs Tomas Etcheverry — Tomas Etcheverry	0.3600	lost	18,859	−$6.8K

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →