Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 8 | 1% | 0% | −1pp |
| 90–100% | 10 | 100% | 100% | +0pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$12 across 18 positions, with $0 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July? — No | 0.9990 | won | 94 | $0 |
| Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Argentina? — No | 0.9910 | won | 95 | $1 |
| Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9990 | won | 93 | $0 |
| Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9970 | won | 87 | $0 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? — Yes | 0.0040 | lost | 231 | −$1 |
| Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 387 | −$1 |
| Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — No | 0.9980 | won | 101 | $0 |
| Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — No | 0.9990 | won | 105 | $0 |
| Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — No | 0.9990 | won | 105 | $0 |
| Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — Yes | 0.0030 | lost | 320 | −$1 |
| Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? — No | 0.9920 | won | 104 | $1 |
| Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? — Yes | 0.0040 | lost | 225 | −$1 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 7? — No | 0.0020 | lost | 392 | −$1 |
| Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025? — No | 0.9980 | won | 96 | $0 |
| Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 93 | $0 |
| Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? — No | 0.0030 | lost | 590 | −$2 |
| Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? — Yes | 0.0290 | lost | 273 | −$8 |
| Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? — Yes | 0.0030 | lost | 298 | −$1 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →