Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 2 | 7% | 0% | −7pp |
| 10–25% | 5 | 20% | 40% | +20pp |
| 25–40% | 6 | 35% | 33% | −2pp |
| 40–60% | 13 | 51% | 62% | +10pp |
| 60–75% | 9 | 65% | 78% | +13pp |
| 75–90% | 11 | 81% | 73% | −9pp |
| 90–100% | 1 | 97% | 100% | +3pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
88% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $23.5K across 47 positions, with $1.7K of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-08-04? — Yes | 0.4418 | lost | 45,828 | −$20.2K |
| Will Aston Villa win on 2026-08-04? — Yes | 0.8299 | won | 5,361 | $912 |
| Will Bayern Munich win on 2026-08-04? — Yes | 0.8600 | won | 14,657 | $2.1K |
| Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw? — Yes | 0.5317 | won | 43,317 | $20.3K |
| Spain vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 — Over | 0.6244 | lost | 21,827 | −$13.6K |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals — Yes | 0.3600 | lost | 10,000 | −$3.6K |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15? — Yes | 0.3133 | won | 30,000 | $20.6K |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? — Yes | 0.6000 | won | 63,000 | $25.2K |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? — Yes | 0.8449 | won | 12,021 | $1.9K |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? — Yes | 0.6604 | lost | 24,377 | −$16.1K |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? — Yes | 0.8128 | won | 10,830 | $2.0K |
| Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? — Yes | 0.3300 | lost | 5,000 | −$1.6K |
| Edin Džeko: 1+ goals — Yes | 0.4381 | lost | 12,794 | −$5.6K |
| Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? — Yes | 0.5891 | won | 18,663 | $7.7K |
| England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 — Under | 0.5600 | won | 5,000 | $2.2K |
| England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? — Yes | 0.8000 | won | 5,030 | $1.0K |
| Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? — Yes | 0.0500 | lost | 50,000 | −$2.5K |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? — Yes | 0.6600 | won | 5,000 | $1.7K |
| Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 — Over | 0.5200 | won | 5,000 | $2.4K |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals — Yes | 0.5200 | won | 7,500 | $3.6K |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals — Yes | 0.2100 | won | 4,000 | $3.2K |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? — Yes | 0.4500 | won | 10,000 | $5.5K |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? — Yes | 0.7666 | won | 10,900 | $2.5K |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? — Yes | 0.6100 | won | 3,000 | $1.2K |
| Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? — Yes | 0.5662 | won | 8,018 | $3.5K |
| Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? — Yes | 0.2300 | won | 5,000 | $3.9K |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? — Yes | 0.6700 | won | 11,936 | $3.9K |
| Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? — Yes | 0.1081 | lost | 5,000 | −$541 |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? — Yes | 0.9700 | won | 3,500 | $105 |
| United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 — Over | 0.4400 | lost | 1,500 | −$660 |
| United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score — Yes | 0.5300 | lost | 5,000 | −$2.6K |
| United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 — Over | 0.7600 | won | 5,000 | $1.2K |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals — Yes | 0.2412 | lost | 5,002 | −$1.2K |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals — Yes | 0.3991 | lost | 5,000 | −$2.0K |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots — Yes | 0.0860 | lost | 1,213 | −$104 |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? — Yes | 0.5800 | won | 10,750 | $4.5K |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? — Yes | 0.6700 | won | 5,000 | $1.6K |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? — Yes | 0.8600 | lost | 27,500 | −$23.6K |
| UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) — Alex Pereira | 0.5100 | lost | 30,000 | −$15.3K |
| UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) — Mauricio Ruffy | 0.8100 | won | 5,200 | $988 |
| UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) — Sean OMalley | 0.7900 | lost | 5,000 | −$4.0K |
| UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) — Bo Nickal | 0.7300 | won | 3,723 | $1.0K |
| UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) — Derrick Lewis | 0.2300 | lost | 15,000 | −$3.5K |
| Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? — Yes | 0.3300 | won | 10,000 | $6.7K |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? — Yes | 0.3800 | lost | 5,000 | −$1.9K |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? — Yes | 0.6400 | won | 36,000 | $13.0K |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? — Yes | 0.8200 | lost | 2,500 | −$2.0K |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →