Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 7 | 0% | 0% | −0pp |
| 90–100% | 21 | 99% | 100% | +1pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $6 across 28 positions, with $0 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9120 | won | 90 | $8 |
| Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9960 | won | 82 | $0 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? — No | 0.9990 | won | 80 | $0 |
| Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9990 | won | 87 | $0 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — No | 0.9990 | won | 81 | $0 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? — Yes | 0.0030 | lost | 320 | −$1 |
| Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? — No | 0.9950 | won | 83 | $0 |
| Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga? — No | 0.9970 | won | 85 | $0 |
| Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — No | 0.9990 | won | 82 | $0 |
| Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — No | 0.9990 | won | 88 | $0 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? — No | 0.0020 | lost | 410 | −$1 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? — No | 0.9990 | won | 81 | $0 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 21? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 421 | −$1 |
| Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? — No | 0.9980 | won | 85 | $0 |
| Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? — No | 0.9985 | won | 164 | $0 |
| Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 395 | −$1 |
| Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? — No | 0.9960 | won | 83 | $0 |
| Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? — No | 0.9970 | won | 82 | $0 |
| US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 391 | −$1 |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? — No | 0.9900 | won | 82 | $1 |
| Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? — Yes | 0.0170 | lost | 178 | −$3 |
| Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 84 | $0 |
| U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 84 | $0 |
| Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? — No | 0.9990 | won | 85 | $0 |
| Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? — Yes | 0.0040 | lost | 230 | −$1 |
| Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025? — No | 0.9990 | won | 85 | $0 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? — No | 0.9897 | won | 247 | $3 |
| Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? — No | 0.9980 | won | 82 | $0 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →