Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.1823

across 10 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+27%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

23.3pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

50%

5 of 10 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	2	1%	0%	−1pp
10–25%	2	17%	0%	−17pp
25–40%	2	32%	100%	+68pp
40–60%	3	54%	67%	+13pp
75–90%	1	78%	100%	+22pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$113.3K

1 open position

Largest position

100%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

position holds half the exposure

Unrealised

$10.3K

against $113.3K of open value

100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$221 across 10 positions, with $2.0K of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? — No	0.5700	lost	5	−$3
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? — Yes	0.4500	won	10	$6
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — Yes	0.5900	won	10	$4
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during March press conference? — No	0.0164	lost	14,189	−$233
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? — Yes	0.0040	lost	259	−$1
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? — No	0.2090	lost	6	−$1
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on January 8? — Yes	0.3700	won	10	$6
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on January 8? — Yes	0.1400	lost	10	−$1
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 2? — Yes	0.2800	won	4	$3
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 2? — Yes	0.7800	won	2	$0

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →