04
Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Brier score
0.1101
across 489 resolved positions · lower is better
Skill vs own base rate
+56%
beating a trader who only knew how often they win
Calibration error
3.4pp
average gap between price paid and what happened
Win rate
51%
250 of 489 paid out
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 90 | 3% | 1% | −2pp |
| 10–25% | 67 | 17% | 18% | +1pp |
| 25–40% | 56 | 33% | 30% | −2pp |
| 40–60% | 69 | 50% | 48% | −2pp |
| 60–75% | 49 | 67% | 69% | +2pp |
| 75–90% | 77 | 83% | 94% | +11pp |
| 90–100% | 81 | 97% | 100% | +3pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
Open exposure
$13.6K
94 open positions
Largest position
24%
share of open capital in one contract
Half the book
4
positions hold half the exposure
Unrealised
−$163
against $13.6K of open value
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $13.4K across 489 positions, with $128 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? — No | 0.7949 | won | 1,004 | $206 |
| Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? — Yes | 0.2036 | lost | 928 | −$189 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 28? — Yes | 0.7501 | won | 8 | $2 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on August 28? — No | 0.5479 | won | 8 | $3 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on August 28? — No | 0.7000 | lost | 5 | −$3 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on August 28? — No | 0.9370 | won | 100 | $6 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on August 28? — Yes | 0.2900 | lost | 30 | −$9 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 28? — No | 0.9400 | won | 10 | $1 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on August 28? — Yes | 0.2500 | lost | 10 | −$2 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on August 27? — Yes | 0.5622 | won | 101 | $44 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on August 27? — No | 0.0489 | lost | 102 | −$5 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on August 27? — No | 0.8565 | lost | 778 | −$666 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 27? — Yes | 0.9034 | won | 678 | $65 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on August 27? — No | 0.3042 | won | 170 | $119 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27? — Yes | 0.0149 | lost | 100 | −$1 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on August 27? — No | 0.6023 | lost | 124 | −$74 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on August 27? — Yes | 0.9788 | won | 42 | $1 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on August 27? — Yes | 0.3701 | won | 44 | $28 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on August 27? — No | 0.9811 | won | 24 | $0 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on August 27? — No | 0.9762 | won | 106 | $3 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on August 27? — Yes | 0.0460 | lost | 100 | −$5 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on August 27? — Yes | 0.4610 | lost | 20 | −$9 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 27? — No | 0.1620 | lost | 29 | −$5 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on August 27? — No | 0.8300 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on August 27? — Yes | 0.8942 | won | 9 | $1 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 26? — No | 0.6154 | lost | 336 | −$207 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 26? — Yes | 0.5833 | won | 918 | $382 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on August 26? — No | 0.0246 | lost | 282 | −$7 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on August 26? — Yes | 0.9929 | won | 105 | $1 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on August 26? — No | 0.3610 | lost | 3 | −$1 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on August 26? — No | 0.8334 | won | 190 | $32 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on August 26? — Yes | 0.9596 | won | 190 | $8 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 26, 12AM ET — Down | 0.7429 | won | 449 | $115 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 12AM ET — Down | 0.8753 | won | 1,248 | $156 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 1AM ET — Up | 0.8930 | won | 435 | $47 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 26, 1AM ET — Up | 0.9900 | won | 20 | $0 |
| Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs — FUT Esports | 0.1378 | lost | 1,642 | −$226 |
| Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit (BO5) - Esports World Cup Playoffs — Spirit | 0.7393 | won | 2,547 | $664 |
| Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs — TEAM VISION | 0.4234 | lost | 8,713 | −$3.7K |
| Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs — Team Spirit | 0.5022 | won | 18,032 | $9.0K |
| Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs — Legacy | 0.2600 | lost | 32 | −$8 |
| Will 200 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23? — Yes | 0.1600 | won | 21 | $18 |
| Will 180-199 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23? — Yes | 0.2505 | lost | 21 | −$5 |
| Will 160-179 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 17-August 23? — Yes | 0.2300 | lost | 21 | −$5 |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs — FUT Esports | 0.4590 | won | 20 | $11 |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs — FURIA | 0.0845 | lost | 61 | −$5 |
| Exact Score: Hull City AFC 2 - 0 Manchester United FC? — Yes | 0.8828 | won | 250 | $29 |
| Hull City AFC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score — No | 0.7322 | won | 619 | $166 |
| Spread: Hull City AFC (-1.5) — Hull City AFC | 0.6693 | won | 75 | $25 |
| LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group — Gen.G | 0.9795 | won | 10,000 | $205 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 12AM ET — Down | 0.6897 | won | 2,000 | $621 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET — Down | 0.8862 | won | 1,330 | $151 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 17? — Yes | 0.1100 | won | 5 | $4 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on August 17? — No | 0.8800 | lost | 5 | −$4 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on August 17? — No | 0.9970 | won | 5 | $0 |
| LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner — Gen.G | 0.4300 | won | 20 | $11 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET — Up | 0.4400 | lost | 100 | −$44 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET — Down | 0.9399 | won | 3,498 | $210 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET — Down | 0.7944 | won | 2,000 | $411 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - August 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET — Up | 0.4987 | won | 511 | $256 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →