Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 4 | 5% | 0% | −5pp |
| 10–25% | 5 | 19% | 0% | −19pp |
| 25–40% | 1 | 27% | 0% | −27pp |
| 40–60% | 1 | 45% | 100% | +55pp |
| 60–75% | 2 | 68% | 50% | −18pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
53% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$1.9K across 13 positions, with $9 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? — No | 0.6400 | lost | 781 | −$500 |
| Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31? — Yes | 0.2484 | lost | 1,208 | −$300 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)? — Yes | 0.0324 | lost | 309 | −$10 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? — Yes | 0.0842 | lost | 356 | −$30 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? — Yes | 0.1085 | lost | 276 | −$30 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? — Yes | 0.2000 | lost | 1,000 | −$200 |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025? — No | 0.4511 | won | 1,108 | $608 |
| Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General? — Yes | 0.2700 | lost | 1,852 | −$500 |
| Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? — No | 0.0539 | lost | 1,855 | −$100 |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? — No | 0.7200 | won | 694 | $194 |
| Will South Korean President lift martial law today? — No | 0.0114 | lost | 1,760 | −$20 |
| Biden drops out of presidential race? — No | 0.1900 | lost | 2,105 | −$400 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? — Yes | 0.2152 | lost | 3,000 | −$646 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →