04
Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Brier score
0.0999
across 93 resolved positions · lower is better
Skill vs own base rate
+41%
beating a trader who only knew how often they win
Calibration error
6.2pp
average gap between price paid and what happened
Win rate
78%
73 of 93 paid out
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 3 | 5% | 0% | −5pp |
| 10–25% | 2 | 18% | 0% | −18pp |
| 25–40% | 6 | 33% | 33% | +0pp |
| 40–60% | 2 | 50% | 50% | −0pp |
| 60–75% | 14 | 68% | 64% | −4pp |
| 75–90% | 13 | 84% | 62% | −22pp |
| 90–100% | 53 | 97% | 100% | +3pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
Open exposure
$52.0K
141 open positions
Largest position
16%
share of open capital in one contract
Half the book
13
positions hold half the exposure
Unrealised
$4.4K
against $52.0K of open value
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $916 across 93 positions, with $2 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? — No | 0.9980 | won | 10 | $0 |
| Will the US strike Iran next? — No | 0.9930 | won | 4,578 | $32 |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? — Yes | 0.9900 | won | 300 | $3 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? — No | 0.9677 | won | 887 | $29 |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 31? — No | 0.8000 | won | 20 | $4 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July? — No | 0.7300 | won | 20 | $5 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? — No | 0.9600 | won | 180 | $7 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? — Yes | 0.3000 | lost | 13 | −$4 |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026? — Yes | 0.7200 | lost | 20 | −$14 |
| Starmer out by August 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.9800 | won | 60 | $1 |
| Starmer out by October 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.9795 | won | 28 | $1 |
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? — No | 0.2600 | won | 10 | $7 |
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? — Yes | 0.8600 | lost | 12 | −$10 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? — No | 0.9700 | won | 419 | $13 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? — Yes | 0.2800 | lost | 14 | −$4 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? — No | 0.9500 | won | 40 | $2 |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026? — No | 0.9863 | won | 60 | $1 |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? — No | 0.7070 | lost | 20 | −$14 |
| Will "Little Brother" be the top US Netflix movie this week? — No | 0.6800 | lost | 20 | −$14 |
| Will "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 20m? — No | 0.3700 | lost | 20 | −$7 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? — No | 0.8810 | won | 51 | $6 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? — No | 0.6100 | won | 20 | $8 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? — No | 0.8110 | won | 15 | $3 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? — No | 0.9595 | won | 40 | $2 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? — No | 0.9240 | won | 14 | $1 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? — No | 0.9570 | won | 20 | $1 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? — No | 0.9625 | won | 200 | $8 |
| Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026? — No | 0.9810 | won | 20 | $0 |
| Epstein client list released by June 30? — No | 0.9000 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 — No | 0.8860 | lost | 20 | −$18 |
| Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? — Yes | 0.9540 | won | 64 | $3 |
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? — Yes | 0.9800 | won | 11 | $0 |
| Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? — No | 0.9160 | won | 16 | $1 |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? — No | 0.9520 | won | 240 | $12 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? — No | 0.9350 | won | 20 | $1 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? — No | 0.9900 | won | 31 | $0 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? — No | 0.9684 | won | 249 | $8 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? — No | 0.7300 | lost | 15 | −$11 |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%? — No | 0.8300 | lost | 10 | −$8 |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? — No | 0.9695 | won | 40 | $1 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.9100 | won | 8 | $1 |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 15? — Yes | 0.2100 | lost | 20 | −$4 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? — No | 0.8053 | lost | 30 | −$24 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? — No | 0.6400 | won | 14 | $5 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? — No | 0.6700 | won | 20 | $7 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? — No | 0.9405 | won | 100 | $6 |
| Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? — No | 0.4750 | lost | 5 | −$2 |
| Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? — No | 0.9499 | won | 400 | $20 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? — No | 0.9880 | won | 20 | $0 |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? — No | 0.8820 | won | 20 | $2 |
| Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party? — Yes | 0.1400 | lost | 20 | −$3 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? — Yes | 0.6520 | lost | 26 | −$17 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? — No | 0.8600 | lost | 20 | −$17 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? — No | 0.7300 | won | 20 | $5 |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 8? — No | 0.9652 | won | 120 | $4 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? — No | 0.9641 | won | 173 | $6 |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? — No | 0.9887 | won | 150 | $2 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? — Yes | 0.9970 | won | 69,497 | $208 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? — No | 0.7500 | won | 30 | $8 |
| Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? — Yes | 0.6726 | won | 34 | $11 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →