Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 13 | 1% | 0% | −1pp |
| 10–25% | 1 | 22% | 100% | +78pp |
| 90–100% | 42 | 100% | 100% | +0pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $110 across 56 positions, with $0 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9960 | won | 50 | $0 |
| Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9990 | won | 51 | $0 |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9980 | won | 52 | $0 |
| Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? — Yes | 0.0040 | lost | 225 | −$1 |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? — Yes | 0.2200 | won | 153 | $119 |
| Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? — No | 0.9970 | won | 51 | $0 |
| Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? — No | 0.9990 | won | 51 | $0 |
| Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? — No | 0.9990 | won | 53 | $0 |
| Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? — No | 0.9990 | won | 50 | $0 |
| Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? — Yes | 0.0030 | lost | 324 | −$1 |
| Will Girona win the 2025–26 La Liga? — Yes | 0.0030 | lost | 312 | −$1 |
| Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — No | 0.9990 | won | 52 | $0 |
| Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — No | 0.9970 | won | 55 | $0 |
| Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? — No | 0.9930 | won | 53 | $0 |
| Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? — No | 0.9980 | won | 56 | $0 |
| Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? — No | 0.9900 | won | 114 | $1 |
| Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? — No | 0.9890 | won | 58 | $1 |
| Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? — Yes | 0.0080 | lost | 200 | −$2 |
| Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? — Yes | 0.0080 | lost | 124 | −$1 |
| Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? — No | 0.9980 | won | 53 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? — No | 0.9970 | won | 53 | $0 |
| Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? — No | 0.9990 | won | 53 | $0 |
| Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025? — No | 0.9975 | won | 113 | $0 |
| Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 2025? — No | 0.9980 | won | 114 | $0 |
| Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? — No | 0.9985 | won | 110 | $0 |
| Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? — No | 0.9990 | won | 119 | $0 |
| Will Pierre Gasly be the 2025 Drivers Champion? — No | 0.9990 | won | 119 | $0 |
| Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2025 Drivers Champion? — No | 0.9990 | won | 60 | $0 |
| Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 821 | −$2 |
| Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion? — No | 0.9990 | won | 59 | $0 |
| Will Marian Vanghelie be the next Mayor of Bucharest? — No | 0.9980 | won | 61 | $0 |
| Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 428 | −$1 |
| Will Oliver Bearman be the 2025 Drivers Champion? — Yes | 0.0040 | lost | 250 | −$1 |
| Will Oliver Bearman be the 2025 Drivers Champion? — No | 0.9980 | won | 62 | $0 |
| Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? — No | 0.9970 | won | 64 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 373 | −$1 |
| Will Rudy Giuliani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? — No | 0.9990 | won | 55 | $0 |
| Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? — No | 0.9949 | won | 119 | $1 |
| Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? — No | 0.9987 | won | 176 | $0 |
| Will Andrew Yang win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 372 | −$1 |
| Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? — No | 0.9990 | won | 58 | $0 |
| Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? — No | 0.9967 | won | 173 | $1 |
| Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? — No | 0.9980 | won | 57 | $0 |
| Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? — No | 0.9960 | won | 58 | $0 |
| Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? — No | 0.9960 | won | 121 | $0 |
| Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? — No | 0.9930 | won | 127 | $1 |
| Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election? — No | 0.9960 | won | 61 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? — No | 0.9980 | won | 58 | $0 |
| Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 400 | −$1 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? — No | 0.9970 | won | 60 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? — Yes | 0.0040 | lost | 403 | −$2 |
| Will Scott Stringer win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? — No | 0.9990 | won | 56 | $0 |
| Will AOC win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? — No | 0.9990 | won | 61 | $0 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? — No | 0.0210 | lost | 271 | −$6 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? — No | 0.9980 | won | 62 | $0 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? — No | 0.9950 | won | 63 | $0 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →