Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 26 | 5% | 4% | −1pp |
| 10–25% | 39 | 18% | 8% | −10pp |
| 25–40% | 36 | 32% | 28% | −5pp |
| 40–60% | 73 | 51% | 52% | +1pp |
| 60–75% | 83 | 67% | 69% | +1pp |
| 75–90% | 97 | 82% | 80% | −2pp |
| 90–100% | 65 | 96% | 97% | +1pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
96% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$5.5K across 419 positions, with $1 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? — No | 0.7800 | won | 20 | $4 |
| Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch? — Yes | 0.4000 | lost | 5 | −$2 |
| Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? — Yes | 0.9300 | won | 10 | $1 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? — No | 0.7322 | lost | 23 | −$17 |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.1240 | lost | 35 | −$4 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.7900 | lost | 1 | −$1 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9921 | won | 5,188 | $41 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9960 | won | 1,000 | $4 |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? — No | 0.5700 | won | 20 | $9 |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals — Yes | 0.1900 | lost | 52 | −$10 |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals — Yes | 0.2400 | lost | 40 | −$10 |
| Canada vs. Morocco: Team to Advance — Canada | 0.3900 | lost | 26 | −$10 |
| England vs. DR Congo: Team to Advance — England | 0.7600 | won | 20 | $5 |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? — Yes | 0.7118 | won | 15 | $4 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? — Yes | 0.6900 | won | 7 | $2 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? — Yes | 0.2100 | won | 5 | $4 |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? — No | 0.8500 | won | 5 | $1 |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals — No | 0.9890 | won | 100 | $1 |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? — Yes | 0.7100 | won | 30 | $9 |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals — Yes | 0.6500 | lost | 10 | −$7 |
| Will England win on 2026-06-23? — Yes | 0.8400 | lost | 10 | −$8 |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? — No | 0.3200 | lost | 30 | −$10 |
| Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? — No | 0.6000 | won | 17 | $7 |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? — No | 0.8300 | won | 12 | $2 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9950 | won | 10,000 | $50 |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? — Yes | 0.6600 | won | 30 | $10 |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? — Yes | 0.9450 | won | 100 | $6 |
| Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? — No | 0.9860 | won | 1,000 | $14 |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? — Yes | 0.2200 | lost | 10,000 | −$2.2K |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? — Yes | 0.2800 | lost | 10,000 | −$2.8K |
| Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? — Yes | 0.1700 | lost | 871 | −$148 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9950 | won | 100 | $1 |
| Zelenskyy wears a suit and tie during next Trump meeting? — No | 0.9700 | won | 100 | $3 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1? — Yes | 0.1300 | lost | 8 | −$1 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9966 | won | 50 | $0 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9960 | won | 121 | $0 |
| Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? — Yes | 0.1290 | lost | 210 | −$27 |
| Will Canada win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? — Yes | 0.0748 | lost | 200 | −$15 |
| Will Germany win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? — Yes | 0.1200 | lost | 200 | −$24 |
| Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? — Yes | 0.6300 | won | 200 | $74 |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-14? — Yes | 0.7900 | won | 10 | $2 |
| Will Ricardo Pietreczko win the PDC World Darts Championship? — No | 0.9980 | won | 500 | $1 |
| Will NFT #1946 win the Based trading competition? — Yes | 0.3000 | lost | 3 | −$1 |
| Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? — No | 0.9200 | won | 10 | $1 |
| Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? — Yes | 0.8410 | won | 5 | $1 |
| Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch? — Yes | 0.8800 | lost | 5 | −$4 |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 30? — Yes | 0.9440 | won | 100 | $6 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? — Yes | 0.9948 | won | 4,625 | $24 |
| Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 15? — Yes | 0.9923 | won | 160 | $1 |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? — Yes | 0.0030 | lost | 18 | −$0 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? — Yes | 0.0100 | lost | 1,000 | −$10 |
| Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31? — Yes | 0.5220 | won | 100 | $48 |
| US strike on Syria by December 31? — Yes | 0.1900 | lost | 6 | −$1 |
| Maduro out in 2025? — No | 0.9300 | won | 200 | $14 |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31? — Yes | 0.2400 | lost | 4 | −$1 |
| Will Netanyahu be pardoned in 2025? — Yes | 0.0700 | lost | 20 | −$1 |
| Will Netanyahu be pardoned in 2025? — No | 0.9300 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? — No | 0.9744 | won | 1,288 | $33 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? — No | 0.9930 | won | 32 | $0 |
| Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? — Yes | 0.9840 | won | 2 | $0 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →