Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 6 | 2% | 0% | −2pp |
| 25–40% | 3 | 31% | 0% | −31pp |
| 40–60% | 13 | 50% | 46% | −4pp |
| 60–75% | 1 | 62% | 0% | −62pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
58% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$4.7K across 23 positions, with $281 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET — Up | 0.4400 | lost | 11 | −$5 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET — Down | 0.5268 | lost | 9 | −$5 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET — Down | 0.5000 | lost | 10 | −$5 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET — Up | 0.3225 | lost | 78 | −$25 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET — Down | 0.6200 | lost | 40 | −$25 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET — Down | 0.4200 | lost | 60 | −$25 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET — Up | 0.4684 | lost | 53 | −$25 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET — Up | 0.5545 | won | 9 | $4 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET — Down | 0.3100 | lost | 81 | −$25 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET — Down | 0.4447 | won | 56 | $31 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET — Down | 0.4400 | lost | 11 | −$5 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET — Down | 0.5017 | won | 50 | $25 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET — Up | 0.5100 | won | 10 | $5 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET — Up | 0.5600 | won | 9 | $4 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET — Up | 0.5900 | lost | 8 | −$5 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET — Up | 0.5300 | won | 9 | $4 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.0495 | lost | 3,638 | −$180 |
| Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? — Yes | 0.0659 | lost | 3,795 | −$250 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0075 | lost | 553,941 | −$4.2K |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0074 | lost | 2,582 | −$19 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET — Up | 0.2900 | lost | 86 | −$25 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET — Down | 0.0100 | lost | 777 | −$8 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET — Down | 0.0010 | lost | 10,000 | −$10 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →