Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.0534

across 20 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

−13%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

18.4pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

1 of 20 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	8	5%	0%	−5pp
10–25%	4	17%	0%	−17pp
25–40%	5	29%	0%	−29pp
40–60%	2	47%	0%	−47pp
75–90%	1	80%	100%	+20pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$705

1 open position

Largest position

100%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

position holds half the exposure

Unrealised

−$101

against $705 of open value

100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$9.6K across 20 positions, with $140 of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) — Ian Machado Garry	0.2649	lost	7,477	−$2.0K
Will the fight be won by submission? — Yes	0.3400	lost	1,471	−$500
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? — Yes	0.2684	lost	1,863	−$500
Will Bayern Munich win on 2026-08-07? — No	0.5030	lost	1,769	−$890
Will Juventus Turin win on 2026-08-05? — Yes	0.8000	won	500	$100
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-05? — Yes	0.4426	lost	2,711	−$1.2K
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.2280	lost	2,193	−$500
Will England win on 2026-07-15? — Yes	0.0298	lost	76,575	−$2.3K
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Argentina? — Yes	0.0900	lost	3,889	−$350
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Argentina? — Yes	0.1100	lost	1,364	−$150
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Argentina? — Yes	0.0700	lost	2,857	−$200
England leading at halftime? — Yes	0.2800	lost	1,071	−$300
Will the fight be won by submission? — Yes	0.1100	lost	865	−$95
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) — Conor McGregor	0.2900	lost	296	−$86
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? — Yes	0.2389	lost	1,639	−$392
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 England? — Yes	0.0290	lost	1,724	−$50
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 England? — Yes	0.0130	lost	3,850	−$50
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 England? — Yes	0.0370	lost	1,351	−$50
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 England? — Yes	0.0600	lost	833	−$50
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 England? — Yes	0.0800	lost	1,085	−$87

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →