Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–25% | 2 | 20% | 50% | +30pp |
| 25–40% | 3 | 31% | 67% | +36pp |
| 40–60% | 6 | 53% | 83% | +30pp |
| 60–75% | 2 | 65% | 100% | +35pp |
| 75–90% | 1 | 86% | 100% | +14pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $2.2K across 14 positions, with $0 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LoL: EXILE esports vs BRUTE (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Season — EXILE esports | 0.3600 | won | 1,333 | $853 |
| LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Play-In — Hanwha Life Esports Challengers | 0.3100 | lost | 124 | −$38 |
| Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-08-23? — No | 0.8600 | won | 207 | $29 |
| LoL: SK Gaming vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season — SK Gaming | 0.2500 | won | 1,044 | $783 |
| LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group — Dplus KIA Challengers | 0.5633 | won | 209 | $91 |
| LoL: NightBirds vs CITA Kaizen (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Season — CITA Kaizen | 0.1601 | lost | 502 | −$80 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET — Down | 0.5300 | won | 19 | $9 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET — Down | 0.6100 | won | 16 | $6 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET — Down | 0.5600 | won | 9 | $4 |
| Will Santos FC win on 2026-08-16? — Yes | 0.2300 | won | 357 | $275 |
| Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2026-08-15? — No | 0.5900 | won | 170 | $70 |
| Will FC Eindhoven win on 2026-08-14? — No | 0.5100 | won | 174 | $85 |
| Valorant: GIANTX vs Fnatic (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Ins — Fnatic | 0.7000 | won | 428 | $128 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain win on 2026-08-12? — No | 0.4400 | lost | 18 | −$8 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →