Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 59 | 5% | 5% | +0pp |
| 10–25% | 74 | 18% | 14% | −4pp |
| 25–40% | 104 | 32% | 34% | +1pp |
| 40–60% | 173 | 49% | 49% | −0pp |
| 60–75% | 64 | 68% | 70% | +3pp |
| 75–90% | 38 | 81% | 87% | +6pp |
| 90–100% | 38 | 96% | 95% | −1pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $52.9K across 550 positions, with $834 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? — Yes | 0.6940 | won | 10 | $3 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves — Los Angeles Dodgers | 0.4800 | lost | 35,555 | −$17.1K |
| Winston-Salem Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Stefanos Tsitsipas — Aleksandar Kovacevic | 0.3100 | won | 35 | $24 |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Moyuka Uchijima vs Lucie Havlickova — Lucie Havlickova | 0.3000 | won | 18,238 | $12.8K |
| Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal? — Yes | 0.3610 | lost | 982 | −$355 |
| Cincinnati Open: Arthur Fils vs Frances Tiafoe — Arthur Fils | 0.5600 | won | 35,000 | $15.4K |
| Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 1 - 0 Manchester City FC? — No | 0.9540 | won | 110 | $5 |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-08-28? — Yes | 0.5800 | won | 20 | $8 |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-08-28? — No | 0.2100 | lost | 10 | −$2 |
| Cincinnati Open: Taylor Fritz vs Brandon Nakashima — Brandon Nakashima | 0.5317 | won | 965 | $452 |
| Cincinnati Open: Tommy Paul vs Flavio Cobolli — Tommy Paul | 0.5100 | lost | 23,266 | −$11.9K |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B — Lynn Vision | 0.1986 | lost | 208 | −$41 |
| Cincinnati Open: Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari — Maria Sakkari | 0.4800 | lost | 93 | −$44 |
| Cincinnati Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo — Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 0.4900 | won | 8,604 | $4.4K |
| Cincinnati Open: Quentin Halys vs Alex de Minaur — Quentin Halys | 0.4700 | lost | 421 | −$198 |
| Cincinnati Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Marin Cilic — Marin Cilic | 0.4100 | lost | 10 | −$4 |
| National Bank Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton — Ben Shelton | 0.5300 | won | 1,306 | $614 |
| LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group — Kiwoom DRX | 0.4900 | lost | 95 | −$47 |
| National Bank Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek — Marta Kostyuk | 0.4300 | lost | 7,661 | −$3.3K |
| National Bank Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Brandon Nakashima — Arthur Rinderknech | 0.5300 | lost | 126 | −$67 |
| National Bank Open: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca — Casper Ruud | 0.5304 | lost | 141 | −$75 |
| Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs B8 (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group C — B8 | 0.3900 | won | 20,000 | $12.2K |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Jessica Pegula vs Alexandra Eala — Alexandra Eala | 0.3700 | won | 2,112 | $1.3K |
| Will Isaac del Toro win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France? — Yes | 0.5400 | won | 49 | $23 |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Diana Shnaider vs Liudmila Samsonova — Liudmila Samsonova | 0.1700 | lost | 10 | −$2 |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Diana Shnaider vs Liudmila Samsonova — Diana Shnaider | 0.7700 | won | 10 | $2 |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto — Elisabetta Cocciaretto | 0.2900 | won | 1,147 | $815 |
| Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs Alexander Blockx — Luca Van Assche | 0.5015 | won | 475 | $237 |
| Livesport Prague Open: Dominika Salkova vs Barbora Krejcikova — Dominika Salkova | 0.1100 | lost | 10 | −$1 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.5400 | won | 5 | $2 |
| Croatia Open: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Damir Dzumhur — Damir Dzumhur | 0.1539 | lost | 5,000 | −$770 |
| Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? — No | 0.4100 | won | 736 | $434 |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.0133 | lost | 256,145 | −$3.4K |
| Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? — Yes | 0.4400 | won | 11 | $6 |
| World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo — Ronaldo | 0.4200 | lost | 506 | −$213 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9219 | won | 1,190 | $93 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.1120 | lost | 274 | −$31 |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.0860 | lost | 134,228 | −$11.5K |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.0336 | lost | 230,094 | −$7.7K |
| Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.0080 | lost | 30,000 | −$240 |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.0538 | lost | 84,759 | −$4.6K |
| Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.0170 | lost | 124,517 | −$2.1K |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.0685 | lost | 26,352 | −$1.8K |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.0220 | lost | 12,346 | −$272 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.0910 | lost | 6,972 | −$634 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.1590 | won | 303 | $255 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.1112 | lost | 34,268 | −$3.8K |
| Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9923 | won | 14,638 | $113 |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev — Jannik Sinner | 0.8000 | won | 4,275 | $855 |
| Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? — Yes | 0.3700 | lost | 994 | −$368 |
| Will Czechia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? — No | 0.2400 | lost | 148 | −$35 |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals — No | 0.8300 | lost | 2,095 | −$1.7K |
| Wimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Linda Noskova — Karolina Muchova | 0.5600 | lost | 2,395 | −$1.3K |
| Wimbledon WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Linda Noskova — Marta Kostyuk | 0.5653 | lost | 10,275 | −$5.8K |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Novak Djokovic — Novak Djokovic | 0.4000 | won | 5,048 | $3.0K |
| Wimbledon WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Karolina Muchova — Naomi Osaka | 0.5000 | lost | 10,000 | −$5.0K |
| Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Coco Gauff — Jessica Pegula | 0.3000 | lost | 335 | −$101 |
| Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.1430 | lost | 486 | −$70 |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals — No | 0.7800 | won | 2,120 | $466 |
| Wimbledon ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina — Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 0.5900 | lost | 64 | −$38 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →