Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.0060

across 5 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

n/a

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

6.8pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

100%

5 of 5 paid out

Only 5 resolved positions. Below about 8 these scores are noise rather than signal: a couple of lucky or unlucky resolutions move them entirely. Treat everything here as provisional.

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
75–90%	1	89%	100%	+11pp
90–100%	4	94%	100%	+6pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$100.4K

1 open position

Largest position

100%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

position holds half the exposure

Unrealised

$409

against $100.4K of open value

100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $11.4K across 5 positions, with $15 of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — No	0.9950	won	38,913	$195
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.9064	won	119,670	$11.2K
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? — No	0.9200	won	75	$6
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in August? — No	0.8900	won	112	$12
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? — No	0.9500	won	60	$3

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →