Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Only 6 resolved positions. Below about 8 these scores are noise rather than signal: a couple of lucky or unlucky resolutions move them entirely. Treat everything here as provisional.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 2 | 2% | 0% | −2pp |
| 10–25% | 1 | 24% | 0% | −24pp |
| 25–40% | 1 | 25% | 0% | −25pp |
| 75–90% | 1 | 82% | 100% | +18pp |
| 90–100% | 1 | 96% | 100% | +4pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
99% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$32.7K across 6 positions, with $1.8K of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.9600 | won | 927 | $37 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31? — Yes | 0.0374 | lost | 2,500 | −$94 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.0050 | lost | 114,713 | −$574 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.2437 | lost | 51,594 | −$12.6K |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — No | 0.2527 | lost | 77,624 | −$19.6K |
| Will fewer than 220 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26? — Yes | 0.8178 | won | 437 | $80 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →