Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.2327

across 633 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+6%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

2.7pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

55%

347 of 633 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
10–25%	3	23%	67%	+43pp
25–40%	59	34%	36%	+1pp
40–60%	431	49%	51%	+1pp
60–75%	108	66%	71%	+5pp
75–90%	32	80%	91%	+11pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$252

71 open positions

Largest position

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

positions hold half the exposure

Unrealised

−$0

against $252 of open value

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $119 across 633 positions, with $0 of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Alex de Minaur — Cameron Norrie	0.3200	lost	10	−$3
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Gael Monfils vs Alexander Bublik — Gael Monfils	0.3200	lost	10	−$3
Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians — Cleveland Guardians	0.3800	won	5	$3
Monza: Rei Sakamoto vs Roberto Carballes Baena — Rei Sakamoto	0.3800	won	10	$6
Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers — Texas Rangers	0.5300	lost	10	−$5
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks — Arizona Diamondbacks	0.4900	won	20	$10
Houston Astros vs. Athletics — Houston Astros	0.5300	lost	10	−$5
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, Qualification: Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana — Francisco Comesana	0.5000	won	10	$5
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-04-11? — No	0.6800	won	10	$3
Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers — Texas Rangers	0.6000	lost	10	−$6
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies — Colorado Rockies	0.3500	lost	10	−$3
LoL: KT Rolster vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 — KT Rolster	0.7100	won	10	$3
Spread: Rockets (-1.5) — Suns	0.5100	lost	10	−$5
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) — Thunder	0.6400	won	5	$2
SC Braga vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5 — Over	0.4700	lost	10	−$5
Will CA Tigre win on 2026-04-07? — No	0.4600	won	10	$5
Club Alianza Atlético vs. CA Tigre: O/U 2.5 — Under	0.6200	won	10	$4
Mavericks vs. Clippers: O/U 238.5 — Under	0.5100	won	10	$5
Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-04-07? — No	0.8000	won	5	$1
Jazz vs. Pelicans — Pelicans	0.8100	won	10	$2
Golden Knights vs. Canucks — Golden Knights	0.6800	won	10	$3
Flames vs. Stars — Stars	0.6800	won	10	$3
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-04-07? — No	0.4000	lost	10	−$4
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) — Club Atlético de Madrid	0.5800	won	10	$4
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? — Yes	0.5500	won	10	$4
Grand Prix Hassan II: Rafael Jodar vs Tomas Machac — Tomas Machac	0.5300	lost	10	−$5
New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals — St. Louis Cardinals	0.3900	won	10	$6
Bulls vs. Wizards — Wizards	0.3150	lost	20	−$6
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 — Over	0.5000	lost	20	−$10
Panthers vs. Canadiens — Panthers	0.3280	lost	51	−$17
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-04-07? — No	0.7000	won	10	$3
San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 — Over	0.4600	won	20	$11
Spread: Nuggets (-9.5) — Nuggets	0.4000	lost	5	−$2
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 231.5 — Under	0.5000	lost	5	−$2
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5 — Under	0.4900	lost	5	−$2
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5 — Over	0.3400	won	10	$6
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 — Under	0.4700	won	5	$3
Spread: Cavaliers (-15.5) — Grizzlies	0.5800	lost	5	−$3
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 — Under	0.4900	won	20	$10
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2026-04-07? — Yes	0.6800	won	10	$3
Colorado Rockies vs. Toronto Blue Jays — Toronto Blue Jays	0.7000	won	5	$1
Athletics vs. Atlanta Braves — Athletics	0.4100	won	5	$3
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies — Philadelphia Phillies	0.6300	won	5	$2
Barletta: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Maxime Chazal — Enrico Dalla Valle	0.6500	won	5	$2
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 226.5 — Over	0.5000	lost	5	−$2
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 227.5 — Over	0.4950	lost	10	−$5
Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 — Over	0.5100	lost	5	−$3
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) — Pistons	0.4800	lost	5	−$2
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-04-06? — Yes	0.6100	won	10	$4
Pistons vs. Magic — Magic	0.3900	won	15	$9
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-06? — Yes	0.4100	lost	10	−$4
Will Derby County FC vs. Stoke City FC end in a draw? — No	0.7400	won	10	$3
Rockets vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5 — Under	0.4500	lost	10	−$4
Blues vs. Avalanche — Avalanche	0.6475	lost	41	−$26
LoL: Dignitas vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner — Shopify Rebellion	0.5000	won	10	$5
Spread: Clippers (-11.5) — Kings	0.4400	lost	10	−$4
Clippers vs. Kings: O/U 228.5 — Under	0.5000	lost	10	−$5
Juventus FC vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5 — Under	0.5000	won	20	$10
Will Hull City AFC vs. Coventry City FC end in a draw? — No	0.7100	lost	10	−$7
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Rinky Hijikata — Rinky Hijikata	0.3900	won	5	$3

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →