Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 4 | 4% | 25% | +21pp |
| 10–25% | 11 | 20% | 9% | −11pp |
| 25–40% | 72 | 35% | 43% | +8pp |
| 40–60% | 261 | 49% | 50% | +1pp |
| 60–75% | 45 | 65% | 69% | +4pp |
| 75–90% | 10 | 82% | 100% | +18pp |
| 90–100% | 4 | 93% | 100% | +7pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $134.3K across 407 positions, with $4.2K of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-08-28? — Yes | 0.5543 | lost | 62,520 | −$34.7K |
| Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-08-27? — Yes | 0.4067 | lost | 38,561 | −$15.7K |
| Will KKS Lech Poznań win on 2026-08-27? — No | 0.6200 | won | 2,360 | $897 |
| Spread: Fulham FC (-1.5) — Fulham FC | 0.6000 | won | 2,000 | $800 |
| Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5) — Austin FC | 0.6980 | lost | 24,401 | −$17.0K |
| Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) — NEC | 0.5246 | lost | 9,077 | −$4.8K |
| Sabah FK vs. MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva: Team to Advance — MH Hapoel Beer Sheva | 0.5900 | lost | 2,000 | −$1.2K |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-24? — Yes | 0.5100 | won | 2,000 | $980 |
| Will FK Zenit win on 2026-08-23? — No | 0.6484 | won | 1,855 | $652 |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-08-23? — Yes | 0.6600 | won | 17,576 | $6.0K |
| Spread: Minnesota United FC (-2.5) — San Jose Earthquakes | 0.7281 | lost | 3,819 | −$2.8K |
| Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-08-22? — Yes | 0.4100 | lost | 2,439 | −$1000 |
| Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-1.5) — FC Dallas | 0.5779 | lost | 1,190 | −$688 |
| Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-08-22? — Yes | 0.4852 | won | 15,458 | $8.0K |
| Spread: Brentford FC (-2.5) — Tottenham Hotspur FC | 0.6255 | lost | 9,078 | −$5.7K |
| Will RFK Akhmat Groznyi win on 2026-08-22? — Yes | 0.4068 | won | 2,141 | $1.3K |
| Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-08-21? — Yes | 0.6700 | won | 11,000 | $3.6K |
| Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2026-08-20? — Yes | 0.5544 | won | 21,069 | $9.4K |
| Spread: KKS Lech Poznań (-1.5) — FC Thun | 0.5799 | lost | 3,501 | −$2.0K |
| Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-08-19? — No | 0.4500 | lost | 2,222 | −$1000 |
| Will Toronto FC win on 2026-08-19? — No | 0.5966 | won | 7,006 | $2.8K |
| Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-08-19? — No | 0.6000 | lost | 5,000 | −$3.0K |
| Spread: GNK Dinamo Zagreb (-2.5) — Viking FK | 0.5084 | won | 6,755 | $3.3K |
| Will GNK Dinamo Zagreb win on 2026-08-18? — No | 0.4491 | won | 3,522 | $1.9K |
| Will RC Deportivo A Coruña win on 2026-08-17? — Yes | 0.4400 | lost | 2,180 | −$959 |
| Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-08-16? — Yes | 0.4800 | won | 4,000 | $2.1K |
| Will PFK Krylia Sovetov Samara win on 2026-08-16? — No | 0.5956 | won | 4,477 | $1.8K |
| Will CF Montréal win on 2026-08-15? — No | 0.5700 | won | 3,000 | $1.3K |
| Spread: FK Krasnodar (-1.5) — RFK Akhmat Groznyi | 0.6455 | won | 4,069 | $1.4K |
| Will Telstar 1963 win on 2026-08-14? — No | 0.5578 | won | 13,455 | $5.9K |
| Will Rosenborg BK win on 2026-08-14? — No | 0.5600 | lost | 3,000 | −$1.7K |
| Will FK Lokomotiv Moskva win on 2026-08-14? — No | 0.5800 | won | 4,377 | $1.8K |
| Spread: Portland Timbers (-1.5) — Club Tijuana | 0.6400 | lost | 9,844 | −$6.3K |
| Will New York City FC win on 2026-08-13? — Yes | 0.5800 | lost | 4,000 | −$2.3K |
| Will MH Beitar Jerusalem win on 2026-08-13? — No | 0.6200 | lost | 1,700 | −$1.1K |
| Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2026-08-13? — No | 0.5900 | won | 1,700 | $697 |
| Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5) — Querétaro FC | 0.4839 | won | 8,890 | $4.6K |
| Spread: FC København (-1.5) — Debreceni VSC | 0.4650 | lost | 4,814 | −$2.2K |
| Spread: Tigres de la UANL (-1.5) — Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 0.5491 | won | 4,555 | $2.1K |
| NEC vs. Olympiakós SFP: Team to Advance — Olympiakós SFP | 0.4700 | lost | 675 | −$317 |
| Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5) — RU Saint-Gilloise | 0.6430 | won | 2,488 | $888 |
| Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-08-09? — Yes | 0.4276 | won | 2,925 | $1.7K |
| Will FK Spartak Moskva win on 2026-08-09? — No | 0.5613 | won | 1,960 | $860 |
| Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-08-08? — Yes | 0.4800 | lost | 2,000 | −$960 |
| Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-08-07? — Yes | 0.4877 | won | 6,506 | $3.3K |
| Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-08-06? — No | 0.6400 | won | 3,808 | $1.4K |
| Will FK Partizan Beograd win on 2026-08-06? — Yes | 0.7000 | won | 3,461 | $1.0K |
| Spread: FC Red Bull Salzburg (-1.5) — Páfos FC | 0.6200 | won | 3,710 | $1.4K |
| Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-08-05? — No | 0.6400 | won | 6,000 | $2.2K |
| Will Nashville SC win on 2026-08-05? — Yes | 0.5200 | lost | 7,253 | −$3.8K |
| Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5) — SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz | 0.4900 | lost | 2,000 | −$980 |
| Aarhus GF vs. Sabah FK: Sabah FK O/U 0.5 — Over | 0.6400 | won | 1,782 | $641 |
| Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-08-05? — No | 0.5900 | won | 3,304 | $1.4K |
| Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-08-04? — Yes | 0.4800 | won | 8,519 | $4.4K |
| Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-08-04? — Yes | 0.6200 | lost | 3,000 | −$1.9K |
| Will PFK Levski Sofia win on 2026-08-04? — No | 0.4200 | lost | 2,500 | −$1.1K |
| Spread: Celtic FC (-2.5) — Dundee FC | 0.5918 | won | 5,291 | $2.2K |
| Will FK Spartak Moskva win on 2026-08-02? — No | 0.5164 | lost | 3,873 | −$2.0K |
| Spread: FK Zenit (-1.5) — FK Orenburg | 0.5236 | lost | 2,000 | −$1.0K |
| D.C. United SC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5 — Over | 0.5100 | won | 3,000 | $1.5K |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →