Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 1 | 8% | 0% | −8pp |
| 10–25% | 6 | 18% | 17% | −1pp |
| 25–40% | 2 | 35% | 50% | +15pp |
| 40–60% | 3 | 51% | 67% | +16pp |
| 60–75% | 1 | 63% | 100% | +37pp |
| 75–90% | 2 | 86% | 50% | −36pp |
| 90–100% | 5 | 96% | 100% | +4pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
70% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $9.8K across 20 positions, with $986 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? — No | 0.8697 | lost | 3,607 | −$3.1K |
| Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July? — No | 0.6300 | won | 100 | $37 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.8589 | won | 147,663 | $20.8K |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.3634 | lost | 23,142 | −$8.4K |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.1060 | lost | 123 | −$13 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.1260 | won | 119 | $104 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.1750 | lost | 114 | −$20 |
| Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.4900 | won | 102 | $52 |
| Xi Jinping out by June 30? — No | 0.9500 | won | 120 | $6 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? — No | 0.9770 | won | 409 | $9 |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? — No | 0.9760 | won | 92 | $2 |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? — No | 0.9172 | won | 3,769 | $312 |
| Xi Jinping out before October? — No | 0.9562 | won | 246 | $11 |
| Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July? — Yes | 0.2300 | lost | 65 | −$15 |
| Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July? — Yes | 0.5781 | won | 35 | $15 |
| 30% EU tariff in effect by August 1? — Yes | 0.2200 | lost | 23 | −$5 |
| Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July? — No | 0.4499 | lost | 44 | −$20 |
| Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Japan in July? — Yes | 0.3400 | won | 29 | $19 |
| Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Germany in July? — Yes | 0.2115 | lost | 47 | −$10 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before August? — Yes | 0.0800 | lost | 38 | −$3 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →