Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 2 | 8% | 0% | −8pp |
| 10–25% | 14 | 18% | 7% | −11pp |
| 25–40% | 12 | 32% | 33% | +1pp |
| 40–60% | 22 | 50% | 59% | +9pp |
| 60–75% | 17 | 68% | 59% | −9pp |
| 75–90% | 3 | 80% | 100% | +20pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
68% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $20.0K across 70 positions, with $0 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-08-28? — Yes | 0.5800 | lost | 8,167 | −$4.7K |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-26? — Yes | 0.7502 | won | 4,754 | $1.2K |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.1810 | lost | 4,254 | −$770 |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? — No | 0.5975 | won | 39,717 | $16.0K |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score — No | 0.5500 | lost | 7,382 | −$4.1K |
| Will Norway vs. England end in a draw? — No | 0.7475 | lost | 28,846 | −$21.6K |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10? — Yes | 0.1475 | lost | 62,132 | −$9.2K |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? — No | 0.4025 | lost | 62,112 | −$25.0K |
| Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Belgium? — Yes | 0.0800 | lost | 1,250 | −$100 |
| Will Algeria win on 2026-07-02? — No | 0.8000 | won | 851 | $170 |
| Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw? — No | 0.7375 | won | 132 | $35 |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01? — Yes | 0.1000 | lost | 9,000 | −$900 |
| Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance — Morocco | 0.4100 | won | 33,489 | $19.8K |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots — No | 0.0700 | lost | 240 | −$17 |
| Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? — Yes | 0.1200 | lost | 5,165 | −$620 |
| Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? — Yes | 0.1300 | lost | 7,692 | −$1000 |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? — Yes | 0.1500 | lost | 7,667 | −$1.1K |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? — No | 0.5900 | lost | 2,881 | −$1.7K |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? — No | 0.8600 | won | 26,030 | $3.6K |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? — No | 0.2700 | won | 33,851 | $24.7K |
| Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? — Yes | 0.2900 | won | 5,500 | $3.9K |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? — Yes | 0.2100 | lost | 5,500 | −$1.2K |
| Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score — No | 0.5600 | lost | 6,726 | −$3.8K |
| Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? — Yes | 0.4100 | lost | 5,000 | −$2.0K |
| Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? — Yes | 0.2100 | lost | 18,554 | −$3.9K |
| Rangers vs. Maple Leafs — Maple Leafs | 0.4600 | won | 945 | $510 |
| Oilers vs. Utah — Oilers | 0.4400 | won | 1,687 | $945 |
| Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-03-19? — No | 0.3900 | lost | 3,260 | −$1.3K |
| Grizzlies vs. Mavericks — Mavericks | 0.6500 | lost | 508 | −$330 |
| Will Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw? — Yes | 0.2200 | lost | 190 | −$42 |
| Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24? — No | 0.3100 | lost | 9,565 | −$3.0K |
| Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-22? — No | 0.2600 | won | 6,684 | $4.9K |
| Spurs vs. Warriors — Warriors | 0.3200 | lost | 420 | −$134 |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? — No | 0.4300 | won | 29,097 | $16.6K |
| Kings vs. Pelicans — Kings | 0.2300 | lost | 4,348 | −$1000 |
| Bulls vs. Nets — Nets | 0.3900 | won | 8,000 | $4.9K |
| Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-02-09? — No | 0.4303 | lost | 3,100 | −$1.3K |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots — Seahawks | 0.6900 | won | 11,304 | $3.5K |
| 76ers vs. Warriors — Warriors | 0.6000 | lost | 10,000 | −$6.0K |
| Penguins vs. Islanders — Islanders | 0.5200 | won | 1,284 | $616 |
| Pelicans vs. Hornets — Hornets | 0.7000 | won | 9,804 | $2.9K |
| Thunder vs. Nuggets — Thunder | 0.6900 | won | 6,986 | $2.2K |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01? — No | 0.4100 | won | 4,200 | $2.5K |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-01? — No | 0.3800 | lost | 1,875 | −$713 |
| Bulls vs. Heat — Heat | 0.6600 | lost | 318 | −$210 |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-31? — No | 0.2400 | won | 5,740 | $4.4K |
| Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-01-29? — Yes | 0.6400 | lost | 3,800 | −$2.4K |
| Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2026-01-29? — No | 0.5900 | won | 250 | $103 |
| Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2026-01-29? — Yes | 0.1400 | lost | 5,000 | −$700 |
| Will Celtic FC win on 2026-01-29? — No | 0.3200 | lost | 3,125 | −$1.0K |
| Will Real Betis Balompié vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam end in a draw? — Yes | 0.2000 | lost | 5,000 | −$1.0K |
| Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-01-28? — Yes | 0.4300 | won | 3,000 | $1.7K |
| Will Sporting CP win on 2026-01-28? — No | 0.6280 | lost | 5,271 | −$3.3K |
| Clippers vs. Jazz — Clippers | 0.7200 | won | 3,560 | $997 |
| Ducks vs. Oilers — Oilers | 0.6900 | won | 580 | $180 |
| Rams vs. Seahawks — Seahawks | 0.5600 | won | 6,758 | $3.0K |
| Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-25? — Yes | 0.3400 | lost | 2,900 | −$986 |
| Knicks vs. 76ers — Knicks | 0.5100 | won | 7,780 | $3.8K |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-24? — No | 0.4600 | won | 3,972 | $2.1K |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-24? — No | 0.2500 | lost | 5,025 | −$1.3K |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →