Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.1523

across 769 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+29%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

7.2pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

69%

529 of 769 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	30	5%	3%	−2pp
10–25%	55	17%	25%	+8pp
25–40%	90	32%	40%	+8pp
40–60%	168	50%	60%	+10pp
60–75%	148	67%	78%	+11pp
75–90%	118	82%	90%	+8pp
90–100%	160	97%	98%	+1pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

0 open positions

Largest position

n/a

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

n/a

positions hold half the exposure

Unrealised

against $0 of open value

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $546.4K across 769 positions, with $248 of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Winston-Salem Open: James Duckworth vs Arthur Fery — Arthur Fery	0.9003	won	153,552	$15.3K
Kingston 2: Andrew Fenty vs Luis Guto Miguel — Luis Guto Miguel	0.8471	won	9,962	$1.5K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Kei Nishikori vs Rei Sakamoto — Rei Sakamoto	0.9899	won	1,740	$18
US Open, Qualification WTA: Tamara Zidansek vs Bianca Andreescu — Tamara Zidansek	0.7955	won	11,231	$2.3K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Zsombor Piros vs Christopher O'Connell — Zsombor Piros	0.8492	won	90,534	$13.7K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Zsombor Piros vs Christopher O'Connell — Christopher OConnell	0.7903	lost	2,896	−$2.3K
Winston-Salem Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Ignacio Buse — Ignacio Buse	0.6350	won	106,619	$38.9K
ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Taipei 2 (Taiwan), hard: Hiromasa Koyama vs Luca Castelnuovo — Hiromasa Koyama	0.2118	lost	2,229	−$472
Winston-Salem Open: Martin Damm vs Fabian Marozsan — Fabian Marozsan	0.6178	won	1,613	$616
Monterrey Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Clara Tauson — Ekaterina Alexandrova	0.5500	lost	4,545	−$2.5K
Monterrey Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Clara Tauson — Clara Tauson	0.7000	won	897	$269
US Open, Qualification WTA: Vendula Valdmannova vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich — Vendula Valdmannova	0.6589	won	3,788	$1.3K
US Open, Qualification WTA: Elvina Kalieva vs Sofia Costoulas — Sofia Costoulas	0.3166	lost	3,406	−$1.1K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Lloyd Harris — Lloyd Harris	0.1600	won	1,563	$1.3K
Philadelphia: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Capucine Jauffret — Oksana Selekhmeteva	0.2375	won	1,484	$1.1K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Arthur Gea vs Clement Chidekh — Arthur Gea	0.5803	won	5,749	$2.4K
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W35 Barueri (Brazil), hard: Romina Ccuno vs Arias Valentina Mediorreal — Arias Valentina Mediorreal	0.7200	lost	60	−$43
US Open, Qualification ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Jack Pinnington Jones — Otto Virtanen	0.9990	won	1,916	$2
Winston-Salem Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Luciano Darderi — Botic van de Zandschulp	0.9850	won	58	$1
US Open, Qualification ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Jack Pinnington Jones — Jack Pinnington Jones	0.5255	lost	135,018	−$70.9K
Kingston 2: Paulo Dos Santos vs Andres Martin — Andres Martin	0.7119	won	1,444	$416
ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Maribor (Slovenia), clay: Stefan Popovic vs Piotr Galus — Piotr Galus	0.1000	lost	71	−$7
ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Lausanne (Switzerland), clay: Adrien Berrut vs Jeffrey Von Der Schulenburg — Adrien Berrut	0.7300	lost	3,043	−$2.2K
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W35 Trieste (Italy), clay: Amarissa Kiara Toth vs Pia Lovric — Pia Lovric	0.9898	won	935	$10
Winston-Salem Open: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Fabian Marozsan — Fabian Marozsan	0.9899	won	3,055	$31
Kingston 2: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Evan Zhu — Juan Pablo Ficovich	0.6906	won	3,616	$1.1K
US Open, Qualification WTA: Dalma Galfi vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich — Aliaksandra Sasnovich	0.6124	won	9,423	$3.7K
Winston-Salem Open: Raphael Collignon vs Rinky Hijikata — Rinky Hijikata	0.5690	won	61,177	$26.4K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Luca Nardi vs Federico Cina — Federico Cina	0.9058	won	22,408	$2.1K
US Open, Qualification WTA: Alice Tubello vs Priscilla Hon — Priscilla Hon	0.7602	won	1,979	$475
Kingston 2: Keshav Chopra vs Kaylan Bigun — Keshav Chopra	0.6889	won	33,340	$10.4K
Winston-Salem Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Luciano Darderi — Mattia Bellucci	0.7200	lost	15,427	−$11.1K
US Open, Qualification WTA: Jordyn Hazelitt vs Harriet Dart — Harriet Dart	0.9100	won	2	$0
US Open, Qualification ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Dusan Lajovic — Dusan Lajovic	0.8908	won	89,394	$9.8K
US Open, Qualification WTA: Jordyn Hazelitt vs Harriet Dart — Jordyn Hazelitt	0.1277	lost	74	−$9
US Open, Qualification WTA: Janae Preston vs Nao Hibino — Nao Hibino	0.7231	won	26	$7
US Open, Qualification WTA: Janae Preston vs Nao Hibino — Janae Preston	0.4043	lost	36,128	−$14.6K
ITF M25 Oviedo Men: Alejandro Garcia Carbajal vs Javier Barranco Cosano — Alejandro Garcia Carbajal	0.8078	won	1,017	$195
ITF M25 Taipei 2 Men: Kosuke Ogura vs Tomohiro Masabayashi — Kosuke Ogura	0.6600	won	758	$258
Monterrey Open: Clara Tauson vs Renata Zarazua — Renata Zarazua	0.3000	lost	8,333	−$2.5K
Kingston 2: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Andrew Fenty — Alvaro Guillen Meza	0.2100	lost	10,518	−$2.2K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Elmer Moeller — Coleman Wong	0.7384	won	32,316	$8.5K
Monterrey Open: Camila Osorio vs Ann Li — Ann Li	0.9900	won	15,008	$150
Philadelphia: Ekaterina Ovcharenko vs Kaitlin Quevedo — Ekaterina Ovcharenko	0.6700	won	1,493	$493
Kingston 2: Edward Winter vs Andres Andrade — Edward Winter	0.2957	lost	4,222	−$1.2K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Felipe Meligeni Alves — Felipe Meligeni Alves	0.1700	lost	8	−$1
US Open, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri — Genaro Alberto Olivieri	0.5677	won	175,951	$76.1K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Spencer Johnson vs Cristian Garin — Cristian Garin	0.6100	won	24	$9
Philadelphia: Lois Boisson vs Capucine Jauffret — Capucine Jauffret	0.6984	won	6,496	$2.0K
US Open, Qualification ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Daniel Rincon — Daniel Rincon	0.5346	won	65,284	$30.4K
US Open, Qualification WTA: Rebeka Masarova vs Iryna Shymanovich — Rebeka Masarova	0.4599	lost	9,512	−$4.4K
ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara — Filippo Valdetara	0.9127	won	28,510	$2.5K
Roehampton 2: Inaki Montes-De La Torre vs Oskari Paldanius — Oskari Paldanius	0.7604	lost	199	−$151
ITF M25 Taipei 2 Men: Yeong-seok Jeong vs Ethan Cook — Ethan Cook	0.9089	won	2,747	$250
Cancun: Sebastian Baez vs Hubert Hurkacz — Hubert Hurkacz	0.9900	won	117	$1
Winston-Salem Open: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Adolfo Vallejo — Adolfo Vallejo	0.9772	won	53,189	$1.2K
Winston-Salem Open: Francisco Comesana vs Yibing Wu — Francisco Comesana	0.9540	won	20,619	$949
Monterrey Open, Qualification: Maya Joint vs Yulia Putintseva — Maya Joint	0.4800	won	20,833	$10.8K
Monterrey Open, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Kamilla Rakhimova — Kamilla Rakhimova	0.9900	lost	308	−$305
Kingston 2: Kaylan Bigun vs Lucas Andrade Da Silva — Kaylan Bigun	0.7800	won	3,205	$705

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →