Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.2048

across 167 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+18%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

4.6pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

53%

89 of 167 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	2	3%	0%	−3pp
10–25%	7	20%	14%	−6pp
25–40%	30	33%	30%	−3pp
40–60%	53	51%	43%	−8pp
60–75%	43	66%	67%	+1pp
75–90%	23	83%	78%	−5pp
90–100%	9	94%	100%	+6pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$9.8K

40 open positions

Largest position

32%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

positions hold half the exposure

Unrealised

−$3.2K

against $9.8K of open value

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$2.2K across 167 positions, with $25 of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
US Open, Qualification WTA: Francesca Jones vs Joanna Garland — Francesca Jones	0.5900	won	18	$7
Set Handicap: Dimitrov (-1.5) vs Giustino (+1.5) — Dimitrov	0.6900	won	438	$136
Monterrey Open: Shuai Zhang vs Maria Timofeeva — Shuai Zhang	0.5200	lost	12	−$6
Eala vs. Anisimova: Match O/U 21.5 — Under	0.4700	lost	291	−$137
Cincinnati Open: Alexander Blockx vs Flavio Cobolli — Flavio Cobolli	0.4700	won	23	$12
UFC Fight Night: Marcio Barbosa vs. Ryan Kuse (Featherweight, Prelims) — Marcio Barbosa	0.8800	won	50	$6
Cincinnati Open: Kyrian Jacquet vs Adolfo Vallejo — Kyrian Jacquet	0.6700	lost	34	−$23
National Bank Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elena Rybakina — Naomi Osaka	0.6100	lost	5	−$3
UFC 330: Lucas Fernando vs. Rafael Tobias (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims) — Lucas Fernando	0.7088	won	193	$56
UFC 330: Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore (Middleweight, Early Prelims) — Tresean Gore	0.5100	won	28	$14
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elina Svitolina — Elina Svitolina	0.6200	lost	12	−$7
The Memphis Classic: Kristina Liutova vs Caty McNally — Caty McNally	0.6600	lost	228	−$150
Alex Michelsen vs. Adrian Mannarino: Total Sets O/U 2.5 — Under 2.5	0.6200	won	5	$2
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Marcos Giron vs Cruz Hewitt — Marcos Giron	0.8800	lost	38	−$33
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Kei Nishikori vs Juncheng Shang — Juncheng Shang	0.5445	lost	31	−$17
UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Aleksandar Rakic (Heavyweight, Main Card) — Aleksandar Rakic	0.7700	won	119	$27
UFC Fight Night: Jan Blachowicz vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) — Navajo Stirling	0.7400	won	130	$34
The Memphis Classic: Katie Volynets vs Viktorija Golubic — Katie Volynets	0.6400	won	10	$4
Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Alex Bolt — Alex Bolt	0.3200	lost	12	−$4
Set Handicap: Snigur (-1.5) vs Tagger (+1.5) — Snigur	0.3600	lost	13	−$5
Set Handicap: Mejia (-1.5) vs Hernandez (+1.5) — Mejia	0.5500	lost	36	−$20
Hamburg European Open: Elina Avanesyan vs Yulia Putintseva — Yulia Putintseva	0.6280	lost	132	−$83
Livesport Prague Open: Mai Hontama vs Lilli Tagger — Mai Hontama	0.3000	lost	21	−$6
Generali Open: Kilian Feldbausch vs Ignacio Buse — Kilian Feldbausch	0.3487	lost	149	−$52
Livesport Prague Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Carol Young Suh Lee — Carol Young Suh Lee	0.1900	lost	13	−$2
Livesport Prague Open: Maya Joint vs Tereza Valentova — Tereza Valentova	0.7396	won	51	$13
Hamburg European Open: Tessa Brockmann vs Elsa Jacquemot — Elsa Jacquemot	0.6100	won	26	$10
Estoril Open: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tiago Pereira — Gonzalo Bueno	0.7500	won	48	$12
Livesport Prague Open: Diane Parry vs Mai Hontama — Mai Hontama	0.3600	won	26	$17
Estoril Open: Nuno Borges vs Orlando Luz — Nuno Borges	0.9500	won	22	$1
Generali Open: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Marco Trungelliti — Marco Trungelliti	0.2700	won	40	$29
Livesport Prague Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Yue Yuan — Yue Yuan	0.2649	lost	39	−$10
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Varvara Lepchenko vs Elina Avanesyan — Varvara Lepchenko	0.3220	lost	137	−$44
UFC Fight Night: Rizvan Kuniev vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Main Card) — Rizvan Kuniev	0.8400	won	10	$2
UFC Fight Night: Abubakar Vagaev vs. Saygid Izagakhmaev (Welterweight, Main Card) — Saygid Izagakhmaev	0.1900	lost	22	−$4
UFC Fight Night: Cody Gibson vs. Abdul Hussein (Bantamweight, Prelims) — Abdul Hussein	0.8200	won	989	$178
UFC Fight Night: Magomed Zaynukov vs. Damian Rzepecki (Lightweight, Main Card) — Magomed Zaynukov	0.7100	won	85	$25
UFC Fight Night: Ismael Bonfim vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims) — Axel Sola	0.6400	won	490	$176
Barbora Krejcikova vs. Maria Sakkari: Total Sets O/U 2.5 — Under 2.5	0.5900	won	21	$9
Swiss Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Stefanos Tsitsipas — Stefanos Tsitsipas	0.7578	won	90	$22
Set Handicap: Badosa (-1.5) vs Udvardy (+1.5) — Badosa	0.4700	won	50	$27
Swedish Open: Adolfo Vallejo vs Stefano Travaglia — Stefano Travaglia	0.3060	lost	250	−$77
Swiss Open: Alexander Bublik vs Quentin Halys — Quentin Halys	0.3290	won	416	$279
Iasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Tamara Zidansek — Tamara Zidansek	0.3100	won	20	$14
Set Handicap: Carabelli (-1.5) vs Topo (+1.5) — Topo	0.5300	won	10	$5
Swiss Open: Jerome Kym vs Dylan Dietrich — Dylan Dietrich	0.3800	lost	28	−$11
Iasi Open: Elina Avanesyan vs Moyuka Uchijima — Elina Avanesyan	0.5500	won	11	$5
Swedish Open: Stefano Travaglia vs Martin Krumich — Martin Krumich	0.5610	lost	25	−$14
Swedish Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Taro Daniel — Taro Daniel	0.3888	lost	37	−$14
Athens Open: Tereza Valentova vs Sofia Costoulas — Sofia Costoulas	0.1800	lost	38	−$7
Swiss Open: Jaime Faria vs Stan Wawrinka — Stan Wawrinka	0.3400	lost	12	−$4
Iasi Open: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Gabriela Ruse — Gabriela Ruse	0.6770	lost	400	−$271
UFC Fight Night: Felipe Franco vs. Levi Rodrigues Jr. (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) — Felipe Franco	0.4200	won	82	$47
UFC Fight Night: Tabatha Ricci vs. Fatima Kline (Women's Strawweight, Main Card) — Fatima Kline	0.8000	won	510	$102
UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis (Middleweight, Main Card) — Dricus Du Plessis	0.6900	won	23	$7
UFC Fight Night: Alberto Montes vs. Tommy McMillen (Featherweight, Main Card) — Tommy McMillen	0.5600	won	14	$6
Set Handicap: Cecchinato (-1.5) vs Ajdukovic (+1.5) — Cecchinato	0.5200	won	24	$12
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Fery (+1.5) — Fery	0.4300	won	390	$222
Pegula vs. Gauff: Match O/U 22.5 — Under	0.4900	lost	70	−$34
Nottingham 3: Clement Chidekh vs Maxime Janvier — Clement Chidekh	0.7600	won	382	$92

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →