Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.1303

across 567 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+47%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

2.3pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

55%

313 of 567 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	77	4%	3%	−1pp
10–25%	77	16%	19%	+3pp
25–40%	61	32%	33%	+0pp
40–60%	96	50%	49%	−1pp
60–75%	64	67%	72%	+5pp
75–90%	46	82%	91%	+9pp
90–100%	146	97%	97%	−0pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$457.3K

71 open positions

Largest position

35%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

positions hold half the exposure

Unrealised

−$6.21M

against $457.3K of open value

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $67.6K across 567 positions, with $820 of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? — Yes	0.2400	lost	17	−$4
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? — No	0.8800	won	5,551	$666
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? — Yes	0.7200	won	10	$3
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? — No	0.2300	lost	12,000	−$2.8K
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? — Yes	0.0350	lost	110	−$4
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? — Yes	0.0400	lost	9,196	−$368
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? — Yes	0.8600	won	10,000	$1.4K
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? — Yes	0.3600	won	4,000	$2.6K
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? — Yes	0.0400	lost	225	−$9
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? — Yes	0.0190	lost	0	−$0
Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027? — Yes	0.8680	won	1,073	$142
Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms? — No	0.1100	lost	1,109	−$122
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? — No	0.9680	won	11,111	$356
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? — No	0.3663	lost	1,894	−$694
Will Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19? — Yes	0.1269	lost	605	−$77
Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19? — Yes	0.4457	lost	696	−$310
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? — Yes	0.0713	lost	22,641	−$1.6K
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? — No	0.9980	won	25,544	$51
Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? — Yes	0.9976	won	8,060	$19
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? — Yes	0.1274	lost	10,940	−$1.4K
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026? — No	0.3492	lost	1,299	−$454
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026? — Yes	0.4480	won	20	$11
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026? — No	0.4900	lost	20	−$10
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? — No	0.1200	lost	158	−$19
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? — No	0.3300	won	5	$3
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call? — Yes	0.5854	lost	6,969	−$4.1K
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? — Yes	0.9941	won	18,026	$107
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance — Argentina	0.4050	lost	3,000	−$1.2K
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time? — Yes	0.3300	won	909	$609
Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score — Yes	0.5200	lost	577	−$300
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina? — Yes	0.0308	lost	20,000	−$616
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17? — Yes	0.7922	won	428	$89
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16? — Yes	0.9183	lost	739	−$679
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? — Yes	0.0528	lost	14,064	−$742
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? — No	0.2125	lost	6,170	−$1.3K
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9? — Yes	0.8478	won	595	$90
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? — Yes	0.4002	lost	3,877	−$1.6K
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? — Yes	0.9970	won	2,606	$8
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? — No	0.3000	lost	10,577	−$3.2K
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? — Yes	0.1499	lost	10,600	−$1.6K
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? — No	0.5328	won	14,368	$6.7K
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? — Yes	0.0080	lost	150,000	−$1.2K
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? — Yes	0.1870	lost	400	−$75
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? — Yes	0.2514	lost	4,301	−$1.1K
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? — Yes	0.3500	won	1,700	$1.1K
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? — Yes	0.6500	won	100	$35
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? — No	0.3498	won	4,070	$2.6K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — Yes	0.1662	lost	16,866	−$2.8K
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — No	0.5200	lost	19	−$10
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? — Yes	0.4567	won	1,056	$574
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? — Yes	0.7700	won	1,000	$230
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? — Yes	0.2658	won	429	$315
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? — Yes	0.5300	won	50	$24
Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026? — No	0.9480	won	29	$2
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? — No	0.6800	won	3	$1
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? — No	0.7800	won	299	$66
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? — No	0.2396	lost	1,121	−$268
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? — Yes	0.4600	won	100	$54
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? — No	0.3456	lost	1,157	−$400
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? — Yes	0.4800	lost	1,425	−$684

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →