Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 1 | 9% | 0% | −9pp |
| 10–25% | 9 | 15% | 0% | −15pp |
| 25–40% | 2 | 25% | 50% | +25pp |
| 40–60% | 3 | 50% | 33% | −17pp |
| 60–75% | 4 | 66% | 100% | +34pp |
| 75–90% | 7 | 82% | 86% | +4pp |
| 90–100% | 2 | 94% | 100% | +6pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $17.5K across 28 positions, with $0 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-08-27? — Yes | 0.7500 | won | 184 | $46 |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-21? — No | 0.1700 | lost | 34 | −$6 |
| UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) — Islam Makhachev | 0.7600 | won | 204 | $49 |
| UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) — Ian Machado Garry | 0.2400 | lost | 83 | −$20 |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-06? — Yes | 0.5100 | won | 28,000 | $13.7K |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? — No | 0.2000 | lost | 10,000 | −$2.0K |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? — Yes | 0.6100 | won | 10 | $4 |
| Suns vs. Hornets — Hornets | 0.6600 | won | 147 | $50 |
| Heat vs. Cavaliers — Cavaliers | 0.5700 | lost | 3,727 | −$2.1K |
| Magic vs. Cavaliers — Cavaliers | 0.8100 | won | 12,000 | $2.3K |
| Grizzlies vs. Hawks — Hawks | 0.8800 | won | 9,000 | $1.1K |
| Wizards vs. Knicks — Knicks | 0.9750 | won | 2,872 | $72 |
| Grizzlies vs. Hornets — Hornets | 0.9100 | won | 2,000 | $180 |
| Cavaliers vs. Pelicans — Cavaliers | 0.6400 | won | 7,000 | $2.5K |
| Spurs vs. Clippers — Spurs | 0.7600 | won | 10,000 | $2.4K |
| Warriors vs. Wizards — Warriors | 0.7300 | won | 6,000 | $1.6K |
| Trail Blazers vs. 76ers — 76ers | 0.2500 | won | 1,411 | $1.1K |
| Jazz vs. Trail Blazers — Trail Blazers | 0.8900 | won | 4,500 | $495 |
| Hornets vs. Trail Blazers — Trail Blazers | 0.4200 | lost | 340 | −$143 |
| Pistons vs. Nets — Nets | 0.1098 | lost | 10,000 | −$1.1K |
| Wizards vs. Heat — Wizards | 0.1100 | lost | 5,000 | −$550 |
| Nets vs. Pistons — Pistons | 0.8900 | lost | 195 | −$173 |
| Nets vs. Heat — Nets | 0.1400 | lost | 5,054 | −$708 |
| Rockets vs. Wizards — Wizards | 0.1100 | lost | 1,000 | −$110 |
| Nuggets vs. Jazz — Jazz | 0.1600 | lost | 4,000 | −$640 |
| 76ers vs. Celtics — 76ers | 0.2500 | lost | 1,200 | −$300 |
| Nets vs. Celtics — Nets | 0.0900 | lost | 1,667 | −$150 |
| Hornets vs. Pacers — Pacers | 0.1500 | lost | 67 | −$10 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →