Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 5 | 0% | 0% | −0pp |
| 90–100% | 19 | 99% | 100% | +1pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $6 across 24 positions, with $0 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 416 | −$1 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9050 | won | 96 | $9 |
| Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.9990 | won | 85 | $0 |
| Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Argentina? — Yes | 0.0100 | lost | 339 | −$3 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 440 | −$1 |
| Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9990 | won | 87 | $0 |
| Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? — No | 0.9990 | won | 87 | $0 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — No | 0.9950 | won | 81 | $0 |
| Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? — No | 0.9990 | won | 176 | $0 |
| Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? — No | 0.9960 | won | 86 | $0 |
| Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? — No | 0.9940 | won | 87 | $1 |
| Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? — No | 0.9950 | won | 91 | $0 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? — No | 0.0020 | lost | 417 | −$1 |
| Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga? — No | 0.9970 | won | 87 | $0 |
| Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — Yes | 0.0020 | lost | 409 | −$1 |
| Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — No | 0.9980 | won | 91 | $0 |
| Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? — No | 0.9980 | won | 91 | $0 |
| Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? — No | 0.9970 | won | 90 | $0 |
| Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? — No | 0.9990 | won | 89 | $0 |
| Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 87 | $0 |
| Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? — No | 0.9990 | won | 87 | $0 |
| Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025? — No | 0.9980 | won | 89 | $0 |
| Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? — No | 0.9970 | won | 90 | $0 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025? — No | 0.9990 | won | 87 | $0 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →