04
Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Brier score
0.1944
across 444 resolved positions · lower is better
Skill vs own base rate
+22%
beating a trader who only knew how often they win
Calibration error
6.1pp
average gap between price paid and what happened
Win rate
49%
216 of 444 paid out
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 24 | 7% | 4% | −2pp |
| 10–25% | 77 | 18% | 16% | −2pp |
| 25–40% | 105 | 33% | 39% | +6pp |
| 40–60% | 125 | 50% | 58% | +8pp |
| 60–75% | 71 | 66% | 76% | +10pp |
| 75–90% | 42 | 81% | 83% | +3pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
Open exposure
$38.2K
4 open positions
Largest position
45%
share of open capital in one contract
Half the book
2
positions hold half the exposure
Unrealised
$949
against $38.2K of open value
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $1.12M across 444 positions, with $16.8K of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monterrey Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Elise Mertens — Nikola Bartunkova | 0.2967 | lost | 353,288 | −$104.8K |
| Monterrey Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Elise Mertens — Elise Mertens | 0.3212 | won | 204,112 | $138.6K |
| Kingston 2: Aidan Mayo vs Luis Guto Miguel — Luis Guto Miguel | 0.0918 | lost | 62,561 | −$5.7K |
| Monterrey Open: Diane Parry vs Ann Li — Ann Li | 0.3328 | lost | 120,875 | −$40.2K |
| Winston-Salem Open: James Duckworth vs Arthur Fery — James Duckworth | 0.1700 | lost | 56,274 | −$9.6K |
| Winston-Salem Open: James Duckworth vs Arthur Fery — Arthur Fery | 0.6053 | won | 41,485 | $16.4K |
| Kingston 2: Rodrigo Pacheco vs Andres Andrade — Rodrigo Pacheco | 0.2880 | lost | 175,391 | −$50.5K |
| Winston-Salem Open: Ignacio Buse vs Benjamin Bonzi — Benjamin Bonzi | 0.1864 | lost | 74,569 | −$13.9K |
| Kingston 2: Rodrigo Pacheco vs Andres Andrade — Andres Andrade | 0.4493 | won | 26,765 | $14.7K |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Elvina Kalieva vs Vendula Valdmannova — Elvina Kalieva | 0.3345 | won | 133,217 | $88.7K |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Francesca Jones vs Joanna Garland — Joanna Garland | 0.0525 | lost | 133,925 | −$7.0K |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Colton Smith — Hugo Gaston | 0.3300 | won | 52,086 | $34.9K |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Federico Cina — Federico Cina | 0.1554 | won | 152,335 | $128.7K |
| US Open, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Harriet Dart — Heather Watson | 0.2507 | lost | 288,571 | −$72.4K |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Mackenzie McDonald — Mackenzie McDonald | 0.0919 | lost | 71,650 | −$6.6K |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Mackenzie McDonald — Dalibor Svrcina | 0.5372 | won | 75,241 | $34.8K |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Zsombor Piros vs Christopher O'Connell — Zsombor Piros | 0.4000 | won | 7,866 | $4.7K |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Zsombor Piros vs Christopher O'Connell — Christopher OConnell | 0.4173 | lost | 14,117 | −$5.9K |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken — Vilius Gaubas | 0.2458 | lost | 320,676 | −$78.8K |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken — Harry Wendelken | 0.3251 | won | 79,105 | $53.4K |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Arthur Gea vs Nishesh Basavareddy — Arthur Gea | 0.1516 | lost | 35,916 | −$5.4K |
| Bengals vs. Eagles — Eagles | 0.3189 | lost | 1,873 | −$597 |
| Saints vs. Cowboys — Cowboys | 0.3047 | lost | 3,904 | −$1.2K |
| Giants vs. Jets — Giants | 0.6519 | won | 56,920 | $19.8K |
| Buccaneers vs. Jaguars — Buccaneers | 0.4354 | lost | 3,054 | −$1.3K |
| Texans vs. Panthers — Texans | 0.3196 | lost | 3,865 | −$1.2K |
| Counter-Strike: M80 vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner — M80 | 0.2449 | lost | 40,010 | −$9.8K |
| Counter-Strike: M80 vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group A — FURIA | 0.6293 | won | 6,616 | $2.5K |
| Will Lille OSC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? — Yes | 0.2400 | won | 12,222 | $9.3K |
| Will AC Milan win on 2026-08-28? — Yes | 0.6600 | won | 13,692 | $4.7K |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-08-28? — No | 0.2100 | lost | 31,059 | −$6.5K |
| Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-08-28? — Yes | 0.4300 | lost | 3,296 | −$1.4K |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-08-28? — Yes | 0.5900 | won | 21,749 | $8.9K |
| Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs paiN - Map 2 Winner — paiN | 0.3540 | lost | 61,494 | −$21.8K |
| Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs paiN (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group A — paiN | 0.1930 | lost | 21,494 | −$4.1K |
| Counter-Strike: G2 vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group A — G2 | 0.2603 | lost | 56,622 | −$14.7K |
| Counter-Strike: G2 vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner — G2 | 0.1014 | lost | 3,883 | −$394 |
| Counter-Strike: G2 vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner — Spirit | 0.6500 | won | 25 | $9 |
| Counter-Strike: G2 vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner — G2 | 0.3216 | lost | 3,971 | −$1.3K |
| Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs DENDELE CS - Map 2 Winner — DENDELE CS | 0.2796 | lost | 5,014 | −$1.4K |
| Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs DENDELE CS - Map 1 Winner — Aurora Gaming | 0.6134 | won | 43,034 | $16.6K |
| Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs DENDELE CS (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group A — Aurora Gaming | 0.8204 | won | 4,052 | $728 |
| Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs DENDELE CS (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group A — DENDELE CS | 0.2392 | lost | 17,088 | −$4.1K |
| Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs DENDELE CS - Map 1 Winner — DENDELE CS | 0.2600 | lost | 1,810 | −$471 |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B — Team Falcons | 0.7148 | won | 204,880 | $58.4K |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B — Lynn Vision | 0.0454 | lost | 43,003 | −$2.0K |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner — Team Falcons | 0.7735 | won | 100,000 | $22.7K |
| Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B — FUT Esports | 0.5184 | lost | 119,548 | −$62.0K |
| Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner — FUT Esports | 0.4881 | lost | 83,204 | −$40.6K |
| Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B — Legacy | 0.7012 | won | 67,346 | $20.1K |
| Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner — FUT Esports | 0.5010 | lost | 10,345 | −$5.2K |
| Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner — Legacy | 0.5200 | won | 3,859 | $1.9K |
| Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner — Legacy | 0.4067 | won | 805 | $478 |
| Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B — 9z | 0.3517 | lost | 26,934 | −$9.5K |
| Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK end in a draw? — Yes | 0.2561 | lost | 98,766 | −$25.3K |
| Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-08-26? — Yes | 0.4700 | lost | 114,339 | −$53.7K |
| Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs M80 (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group A — Natus Vincere | 0.3792 | lost | 93,450 | −$35.4K |
| Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs M80 - Map 2 Winner — M80 | 0.5586 | won | 31,022 | $13.7K |
| Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs M80 (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group A — M80 | 0.1667 | won | 4,860 | $4.1K |
| Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group A — Aurora Gaming | 0.4988 | lost | 47,266 | −$23.6K |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →