Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 1 | 0% | 0% | −0pp |
| 25–40% | 1 | 35% | 0% | −35pp |
| 40–60% | 1 | 59% | 100% | +41pp |
| 60–75% | 2 | 63% | 100% | +37pp |
| 75–90% | 3 | 85% | 100% | +15pp |
| 90–100% | 80 | 99% | 100% | +1pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
91% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$1.8K across 88 positions, with $0 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July? — No | 0.9990 | won | 11 | $0 |
| Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? — No | 0.9990 | won | 505 | $1 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9960 | won | 40 | $0 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? — No | 0.9990 | won | 3 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? — No | 0.9970 | won | 2 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? — No | 0.9970 | won | 3 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? — No | 0.9980 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? — No | 0.9990 | won | 17 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? — No | 0.9990 | won | 12 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? — No | 0.9980 | won | 511 | $1 |
| Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? — No | 0.9990 | won | 3 | $0 |
| Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? — No | 0.9990 | won | 551 | $1 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? — No | 0.9990 | won | 551 | $1 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9950 | won | 504 | $3 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? — No | 0.9990 | won | 9 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? — No | 0.9990 | won | 40 | $0 |
| Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? — No | 0.9990 | won | 33 | $0 |
| Will Stable launch a token in 2025? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? — No | 0.9940 | won | 3 | $0 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? — Yes | 0.8500 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? — No | 0.9320 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? — No | 0.9950 | won | 2 | $0 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? — No | 0.9990 | won | 50 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? — No | 0.9970 | won | 50 | $0 |
| Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? — No | 0.9990 | won | 2 | $0 |
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? — No | 0.9990 | won | 2 | $0 |
| Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? — No | 0.9990 | won | 2 | $0 |
| LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) — T1 | 0.6400 | won | 8 | $3 |
| Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? — Yes | 0.5900 | won | 1,000 | $410 |
| Will Solana dip to $120 in October? — No | 0.9980 | won | 2 | $0 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in October? — No | 0.9990 | won | 30 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? — No | 0.9970 | won | 15 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? — No | 0.9940 | won | 2 | $0 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? — No | 0.9960 | won | 22 | $0 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? — No | 0.9980 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? — No | 0.9970 | won | 3 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? — No | 0.9870 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? — No | 0.9740 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? — No | 0.9830 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? — No | 0.9930 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? — No | 0.9940 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on September 30? — No | 0.9950 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on September 30? — No | 0.9970 | won | 1 | $0 |
| MetaMask airdrop in Q3 2025? — No | 0.9850 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Rabby airdrop in Q3 2025? — No | 0.9840 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Jumper airdrop in Q3 2025? — No | 0.9860 | won | 4 | $0 |
| Linea airdrop in Q3 2025? — Yes | 0.9970 | won | 4 | $0 |
| Ethereum above $4000 on September 5? — Yes | 0.9980 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? — No | 0.9980 | won | 18 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? — No | 0.9860 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? — No | 0.9980 | won | 22 | $0 |
| Will Dogecoin dip to $0.06 in July? — No | 0.9990 | won | 19 | $0 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in July? — No | 0.9990 | won | 10 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? — No | 0.9990 | won | 9 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? — No | 0.9980 | won | 50 | $0 |
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? — No | 0.9990 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? — No | 0.9990 | won | 17 | $0 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3400 on July 20 at 5PM ET? — No | 0.9990 | won | 3 | $0 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? — No | 0.9920 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? — No | 0.9960 | won | 9 | $0 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →