Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 11 | 5% | 9% | +5pp |
| 10–25% | 22 | 18% | 18% | +1pp |
| 25–40% | 73 | 33% | 32% | −2pp |
| 40–60% | 409 | 50% | 48% | −2pp |
| 60–75% | 91 | 67% | 62% | −5pp |
| 75–90% | 88 | 83% | 86% | +3pp |
| 90–100% | 35 | 93% | 100% | +7pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
100% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$589 across 729 positions, with $27 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castleford Tigers vs. Catalans Dragons — Castleford Tigers | 0.4900 | lost | 5 | −$2 |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Moise Kouame vs Nishesh Basavareddy — Nishesh Basavareddy | 0.5200 | won | 8 | $4 |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Bernard Tomic vs Lloyd Harris — Lloyd Harris | 0.7400 | won | 135 | $35 |
| Will Club León FC win on 2026-08-28? — No | 0.6500 | won | 153 | $54 |
| Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Real Sociedad de Fútbol O/U 3.5 Corners — Under | 0.5806 | lost | 343 | −$199 |
| Will Kocaelispor win on 2026-08-24? — No | 0.3600 | lost | 277 | −$100 |
| Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: Botafogo FR O/U 5.5 Corners — Under | 0.5700 | lost | 100 | −$57 |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals — No | 0.8900 | won | 10 | $1 |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals — No | 0.8900 | lost | 4 | −$4 |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals — No | 0.8700 | won | 6 | $1 |
| United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Bosnia and Herzegovina O/U 1.5 — Under | 0.8600 | won | 58 | $8 |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01? — No | 0.9050 | won | 219 | $21 |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ goals — No | 0.9000 | won | 66 | $7 |
| Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals — No | 0.8200 | won | 73 | $13 |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ assists — No | 0.9200 | won | 65 | $5 |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals — No | 0.7341 | lost | 82 | −$60 |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists — No | 0.8500 | won | 50 | $8 |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals — No | 0.5500 | lost | 106 | −$58 |
| Luis Suárez: 1+ goals — No | 0.8700 | won | 69 | $9 |
| Declan Rice: 1+ assists — No | 0.8727 | won | 69 | $9 |
| Petar Musa: 1+ goals — No | 0.8600 | won | 69 | $10 |
| Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals — No | 0.8492 | won | 70 | $11 |
| Noa Lang: 1+ goals — No | 0.9100 | won | 66 | $6 |
| Guillermo Martínez: 1+ goals — Yes | 0.0100 | lost | 101 | −$1 |
| Son Heungmin: 1+ goals — No | 0.8885 | won | 67 | $7 |
| Azzedine Ounahi: 1+ goals — No | 0.7600 | won | 78 | $19 |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ goals — No | 0.9200 | won | 65 | $5 |
| Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 — Under | 0.6400 | won | 39 | $14 |
| Cecilio Waterman: 1+ goals — No | 0.9000 | won | 66 | $7 |
| Ollie Watkins: 1+ goals — No | 0.9000 | won | 20 | $2 |
| Gavi Paez: 1+ goals — No | 0.9300 | won | 100 | $7 |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals — No | 0.8633 | won | 45 | $6 |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals — No | 0.8500 | won | 59 | $9 |
| Pervis Estupiñán: 1+ goals — Yes | 0.1600 | lost | 5 | −$1 |
| Justin Kluivert: 1+ goals — No | 0.9200 | won | 15 | $1 |
| Deniz Gül: 1+ goals — No | 0.8000 | won | 62 | $12 |
| Kerem Aktürkoğlu: 1+ goals — No | 0.7600 | won | 10 | $2 |
| Rayan: 1+ goals — No | 0.8000 | won | 46 | $9 |
| Gabriel Martinelli: 1+ goals — No | 0.8662 | won | 16 | $2 |
| Casemiro: 1+ goals — No | 0.8900 | won | 26 | $3 |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals — No | 0.0417 | lost | 6,100 | −$254 |
| Endrick: 1+ goals — No | 0.9248 | won | 12 | $1 |
| Bilal El Khannouss: 1+ assists — No | 0.9700 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ assists — No | 0.9700 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Scott McTominay: 1+ goals — No | 0.9100 | won | 11 | $1 |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals — No | 0.8200 | won | 360 | $65 |
| Mathew Leckie: 1+ goals — Yes | 0.0100 | lost | 300 | −$3 |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals — No | 0.8300 | won | 29 | $5 |
| Nishan Velupillay: 1+ goals — Yes | 0.0100 | lost | 50 | −$1 |
| Nestory Irankunda: 1+ goals — No | 0.8900 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Lee Kangin: 1+ goals — No | 0.8600 | won | 15 | $2 |
| Son Heungmin: 1+ goals — No | 0.7840 | won | 12 | $3 |
| Cho Guesung: 1+ assists — No | 0.8400 | won | 0 | $0 |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ assists — No | 0.8600 | won | 58 | $8 |
| Stephen Eustáquio: 1+ goals — No | 0.8300 | won | 25 | $4 |
| Ismaël Koné: 1+ goals — No | 0.8874 | won | 56 | $6 |
| Akram Afif: 1+ goals — No | 0.8700 | won | 28 | $4 |
| Alphonso Davies: 1+ goals — No | 0.9200 | won | 48 | $4 |
| Almoez Ali: 1+ goals — No | 0.9000 | won | 13 | $1 |
| Ermedin Demirović: 1+ goals — No | 0.9000 | won | 5 | $1 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →