04
Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Brier score
0.2025
across 76 resolved positions · lower is better
Skill vs own base rate
+14%
beating a trader who only knew how often they win
Calibration error
10.4pp
average gap between price paid and what happened
Win rate
38%
29 of 76 paid out
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 4 | 6% | 0% | −6pp |
| 10–25% | 7 | 18% | 29% | +11pp |
| 25–40% | 18 | 33% | 11% | −22pp |
| 40–60% | 28 | 47% | 46% | −1pp |
| 60–75% | 7 | 69% | 57% | −12pp |
| 75–90% | 11 | 81% | 73% | −8pp |
| 90–100% | 1 | 91% | 0% | −91pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
Open exposure
$50.8K
11 open positions
Largest position
28%
share of open capital in one contract
Half the book
3
positions hold half the exposure
Unrealised
−$6.0K
against $50.8K of open value
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$138.3K across 76 positions, with $905 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFC 330: Jeremiah Wells vs. Myktybek Orolbai (Welterweight, Prelims) — Myktybek Orolbai | 0.9100 | lost | 7,000 | −$6.4K |
| UFC 330: Eric McConico vs. Donte Johnson (Middleweight, Early Prelims) — Donte Johnson | 0.7400 | won | 490 | $127 |
| UFC 330: Charles Johnson vs. Eduardo Chapolin (Catchweight, Prelims) — Charles Johnson | 0.5147 | won | 6,823 | $3.3K |
| UFC 330: Edson Barboza vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims) — Esteban Ribovics | 0.8600 | won | 10,000 | $1.4K |
| UFC 330: Neil Magny vs. Ramiz Brahimaj (Welterweight, Prelims) — Neil Magny | 0.4400 | won | 10,000 | $5.6K |
| UFC 330: Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight, Prelims) — Mansur Abdul-Malik | 0.8507 | lost | 951 | −$809 |
| UFC 330: Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore (Middleweight, Early Prelims) — Tresean Gore | 0.5000 | won | 10,000 | $5.0K |
| UFC 330: Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) — Joel Álvarez | 0.7500 | lost | 10,000 | −$7.5K |
| UFC 330: Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes (Lightweight, Prelims) — Kauê Fernandes | 0.4900 | lost | 10,000 | −$4.9K |
| UFC 330: Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson (Women's Strawweight, Main Card) — Gillian Robertson | 0.3600 | lost | 13,000 | −$4.7K |
| UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card) — Islam Makhachev | 0.7500 | won | 10,000 | $2.5K |
| UFC 329: Cesar Almeida vs. Damian Pinas (Middleweight, Early Prelims) — Damian Pinas | 0.7100 | won | 1,119 | $324 |
| UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) — Robert Whittaker | 0.5200 | won | 8,576 | $4.1K |
| UFC 329: Wang Cong vs. Tracy Cortez (Women's Flyweight, Early Prelims) — Wang Cong | 0.5400 | won | 10,000 | $4.6K |
| UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) — Max Holloway | 0.7300 | won | 22,128 | $6.0K |
| Will United States win on 2026-07-06? — Yes | 0.3811 | lost | 45,000 | −$17.1K |
| UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Main Card) — Michel Pereira | 0.2600 | lost | 10,010 | −$2.6K |
| UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card) — Rafael Fiziev | 0.5000 | won | 10,005 | $5.0K |
| UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, Main Card) — Michal Oleksiejczuk | 0.5200 | lost | 10,000 | −$5.2K |
| UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Card) — Brunno Ferreira | 0.3000 | lost | 10,000 | −$3.0K |
| UFC Fight Night: Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson (Flyweight, Main Card) — Charles Johnson | 0.2700 | lost | 5,000 | −$1.4K |
| UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Card) — Nazim Sadykhov | 0.6200 | lost | 10,000 | −$6.2K |
| UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) — Sean OMalley | 0.7942 | lost | 6,720 | −$5.3K |
| UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) — Steve Garcia | 0.4300 | lost | 8,000 | −$3.4K |
| UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) — Bo Nickal | 0.7500 | won | 20,000 | $5.0K |
| UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) — Michael Chandler | 0.1900 | lost | 30,000 | −$5.7K |
| UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) — Derrick Lewis | 0.2100 | lost | 20,000 | −$4.2K |
| UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) — Justin Gaethje | 0.2100 | won | 20,000 | $15.8K |
| UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) — Alex Pereira | 0.5000 | lost | 10,000 | −$5.0K |
| UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) — Josh Hokit | 0.8000 | won | 10,000 | $2.0K |
| Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? — Yes | 0.0080 | lost | 22,628 | −$181 |
| UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) — Roman Kopylov | 0.3500 | won | 5,000 | $3.3K |
| UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) — Mateusz Rebecki | 0.4400 | lost | 5,000 | −$2.2K |
| UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) — William Gomis | 0.4000 | lost | 5,000 | −$2.0K |
| UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) — Joel Álvarez | 0.3800 | lost | 5,000 | −$1.9K |
| UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims) — Clayton Carpenter | 0.3900 | lost | 2,182 | −$851 |
| UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early Prelims) — Djorden Santos | 0.1300 | lost | 5,000 | −$650 |
| UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) — Jeremy Stephens | 0.2200 | lost | 3,263 | −$718 |
| UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) — Joaquin Buckley | 0.4000 | lost | 5,000 | −$2.0K |
| UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card) — Waldo Cortes-Acosta | 0.4500 | lost | 5,000 | −$2.3K |
| UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) — Joshua Van | 0.4100 | won | 5,000 | $3.0K |
| UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) — Sean Strickland | 0.1900 | won | 5,000 | $4.1K |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET — Up | 0.3652 | lost | 738 | −$269 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET — Down | 0.3492 | lost | 1,583 | −$553 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET — Down | 0.4065 | won | 216 | $128 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET — Down | 0.4650 | lost | 194 | −$90 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET — Up | 0.3106 | lost | 526 | −$163 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET — Up | 0.7390 | won | 180 | $47 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET — Up | 0.4926 | lost | 203 | −$100 |
| UFC Fight Night: Kyle Nelson vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card) — Kyle Nelson | 0.3700 | lost | 10,000 | −$3.7K |
| UFC Fight Night: Yousri Belgaroui vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik (Middleweight, Prelims) — Yousri Belgaroui | 0.4300 | won | 5,322 | $3.0K |
| UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prelims) — Julian Erosa | 0.2700 | lost | 10,000 | −$2.7K |
| UFC Fight Night: Michael Chiesa vs. Niko Price (Welterweight, Main Card) — Michael Chiesa | 0.8900 | won | 5,000 | $550 |
| UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Card) — Joe Pyfer | 0.4400 | won | 15,000 | $8.4K |
| UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) — Alexa Grasso | 0.3700 | won | 15,000 | $9.4K |
| Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? — Yes | 0.1000 | lost | 100,000 | −$10.0K |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) — Patriots | 0.5000 | lost | 62,669 | −$31.3K |
| Big Game: Overtime? — Yes | 0.0800 | lost | 9,755 | −$780 |
| 1H Spread: Seahawks (-2.5) — Seahawks | 0.5561 | won | 26,096 | $11.6K |
| Big Game: Coin Toss — Tails | 0.5010 | lost | 16,000 | −$8.0K |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →