Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 16 | 3% | 0% | −3pp |
| 10–25% | 5 | 21% | 20% | −1pp |
| 25–40% | 19 | 34% | 21% | −13pp |
| 40–60% | 53 | 49% | 40% | −10pp |
| 60–75% | 47 | 68% | 66% | −2pp |
| 75–90% | 57 | 83% | 82% | −1pp |
| 90–100% | 75 | 97% | 97% | +1pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $4.2K across 272 positions, with $0 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? — No | 0.4800 | lost | 10 | −$5 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in August? — No | 0.7600 | lost | 15 | −$11 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 3PM ET — Up | 0.2200 | lost | 20 | −$4 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET — Down | 0.9800 | won | 10 | $0 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET — Up | 0.3900 | lost | 5 | −$2 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET — Up | 0.4100 | lost | 100 | −$41 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET — Down | 0.4567 | lost | 150 | −$69 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET — Up | 0.6100 | lost | 20 | −$12 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET — Down | 0.4900 | lost | 100 | −$49 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET — Up | 0.3200 | won | 10 | $7 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET — Up | 0.4900 | won | 100 | $51 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET — Up | 0.9000 | won | 20 | $2 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET — Down | 0.7300 | won | 50 | $14 |
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? — No | 0.5108 | lost | 61 | −$31 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET — Up | 0.4500 | won | 30 | $17 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET — Down | 0.5400 | won | 20 | $9 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET — Down | 0.3900 | lost | 30 | −$12 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET — Down | 0.3631 | lost | 50 | −$18 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET — Up | 0.4900 | lost | 69 | −$34 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET — Up | 0.5700 | lost | 50 | −$28 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET — Up | 0.4600 | lost | 60 | −$28 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET — Down | 0.4500 | won | 50 | $28 |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? — Yes | 0.3400 | lost | 10 | −$3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET — Up | 0.6200 | won | 20 | $8 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET — Up | 0.8200 | lost | 25 | −$21 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET — Down | 0.9400 | won | 6 | $0 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET — Up | 0.2300 | lost | 10 | −$2 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET — Up | 0.6600 | won | 3 | $1 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET — Up | 0.9100 | won | 10 | $1 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET — Up | 0.5800 | lost | 10 | −$6 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET — Down | 0.4900 | lost | 9 | −$4 |
| Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven — Usyk | 0.3000 | won | 25 | $18 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET — Down | 0.7800 | won | 10 | $2 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET — Down | 0.4900 | lost | 10 | −$5 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET — Up | 0.8600 | won | 9 | $1 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET — Down | 0.5400 | won | 10 | $5 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET — Up | 0.6500 | won | 10 | $4 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? — No | 0.9400 | won | 10 | $1 |
| Will Odisha FC win on 2026-04-28? — Yes | 0.0230 | lost | 30 | −$1 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET — Down | 0.5000 | won | 40 | $20 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET — Down | 0.5000 | lost | 40 | −$20 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET — Up | 0.4600 | won | 9 | $5 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET — Up | 0.9500 | won | 7 | $0 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET — Down | 0.8150 | won | 19 | $4 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET — Up | 0.8500 | won | 10 | $1 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET — Up | 0.8800 | won | 10 | $1 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET — Up | 0.7900 | won | 10 | $2 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET — Up | 0.5500 | lost | 9 | −$5 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET — Up | 0.7200 | won | 10 | $3 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET — Up | 0.5400 | won | 9 | $4 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET — Up | 0.7000 | lost | 10 | −$7 |
| Will India strike Pakistan by March 31? — No | 0.7800 | won | 111 | $24 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? — No | 0.7500 | won | 50 | $13 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET — Up | 0.2600 | lost | 20 | −$5 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET — Down | 0.6390 | won | 39 | $14 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET — Down | 0.7200 | won | 29 | $8 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET — Down | 0.6490 | won | 29 | $10 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET — Down | 0.5921 | won | 39 | $16 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET — Down | 0.6300 | won | 20 | $8 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET — Up | 0.7309 | lost | 166 | −$121 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →