Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.0011

across 5 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

n/a

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

2.2pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

0 of 5 paid out

Only 5 resolved positions. Below about 8 these scores are noise rather than signal: a couple of lucky or unlucky resolutions move them entirely. Treat everything here as provisional.

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	5	2%	0%	−2pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$7.4K

2 open positions

Largest position

73%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

position holds half the exposure

Unrealised

$983

against $7.4K of open value

73% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$26.1K across 5 positions, with $1.3K of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.0048	lost	3,714,258	−$18.0K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.0035	lost	1,056,876	−$3.7K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.0020	lost	1,000,000	−$2.0K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — No	0.0626	lost	27,680	−$1.7K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.0372	lost	18,971	−$706

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →