Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 17 | 5% | 0% | −5pp |
| 10–25% | 135 | 17% | 11% | −6pp |
| 25–40% | 120 | 32% | 25% | −7pp |
| 40–60% | 224 | 50% | 53% | +3pp |
| 60–75% | 132 | 67% | 73% | +6pp |
| 75–90% | 114 | 82% | 81% | −1pp |
| 90–100% | 38 | 93% | 92% | −1pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$388 across 780 positions, with $11 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Atlante FC win on 2026-08-28? — No | 0.6300 | won | 6 | $2 |
| Will Club León FC win on 2026-08-28? — No | 0.6200 | won | 6 | $2 |
| Will Club Necaxa win on 2026-08-28? — No | 0.7300 | won | 15 | $4 |
| Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-08-28? — Yes | 0.4700 | won | 27 | $14 |
| CA Boca Juniors vs. CA Lanús: O/U 2.5 — Over | 0.3700 | lost | 21 | −$8 |
| Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 — Under | 0.4200 | lost | 9 | −$4 |
| Will Gençlerbirliği SK win on 2026-08-28? — Yes | 0.4505 | lost | 35 | −$16 |
| Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-08-28? — No | 0.5000 | lost | 88 | −$44 |
| Will Viborg FF win on 2026-08-28? — No | 0.4441 | lost | 29 | −$13 |
| Will ASC Oțelul Galați win on 2026-08-28? — No | 0.6313 | won | 25 | $9 |
| Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) — Lille OSC | 0.6800 | won | 6 | $2 |
| Will FC Groningen win on 2026-08-28? — No | 0.3400 | won | 9 | $6 |
| Crystal Palace FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 — Under | 0.2000 | lost | 18 | −$4 |
| Will Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC win on 2026-08-28? — No | 0.5300 | won | 5 | $2 |
| Will Athletic Club win on 2026-08-27? — No | 0.9000 | won | 7 | $1 |
| Spread: Independiente del Valle (-1.5) — CD Tolima | 0.6000 | lost | 5 | −$3 |
| Will Independiente del Valle win on 2026-08-18? — No | 0.3600 | lost | 11 | −$4 |
| Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Charlton Athletic FC: O/U 2.5 — Over | 0.6700 | won | 5 | $2 |
| Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-08-26? — Yes | 0.1000 | lost | 11 | −$1 |
| Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK end in a draw? — No | 0.7400 | won | 5 | $1 |
| Will Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? — Yes | 0.1600 | lost | 7 | −$1 |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-26? — No | 0.2700 | lost | 8 | −$2 |
| Will CR Brasil win on 2026-08-25? — No | 0.7400 | won | 7 | $2 |
| Will EC Juventude win on 2026-08-25? — Yes | 0.4500 | won | 17 | $9 |
| Will Southampton FC win on 2026-08-25? — Yes | 0.4500 | lost | 45 | −$20 |
| Will Southampton FC win on 2026-08-25? — No | 0.5300 | won | 9 | $4 |
| Will Al Ettifaq Saudi Club win on 2026-08-25? — No | 0.9052 | won | 29 | $3 |
| Spread: West Ham United FC (-1.5) — West Ham United FC | 0.1700 | won | 6 | $5 |
| Will Watford FC vs. Peterborough United FC end in a draw? — Yes | 0.2600 | lost | 5 | −$1 |
| Will Sheffield Wednesday FC win on 2026-08-25? — No | 0.8533 | won | 23 | $3 |
| Will Sabah FK win on 2026-08-25? — No | 0.5200 | lost | 6 | −$3 |
| Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-08-25? — Yes | 0.3700 | won | 22 | $14 |
| Will Brentford FC win on 2026-08-25? — No | 0.4600 | lost | 5 | −$2 |
| Will Al Fayha Saudi Club win on 2026-08-25? — No | 0.8200 | won | 26 | $5 |
| Spread: Al Nassr Saudi Club (-1.5) — Al Ettifaq Saudi Club | 0.4200 | won | 5 | $3 |
| Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-08-25? — No | 0.4400 | won | 8 | $4 |
| Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-08-25? — No | 0.8600 | won | 5 | $1 |
| Will Doncaster Rovers FC win on 2026-08-25? — No | 0.8300 | won | 5 | $1 |
| Doncaster Rovers FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 2.5 — Over | 0.5900 | won | 5 | $2 |
| Walsall FC vs. Leyton Orient FC: O/U 2.5 — Over | 0.5000 | lost | 5 | −$3 |
| Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-08-25? — No | 0.3300 | lost | 18 | −$6 |
| Will FC Seoul win on 2026-08-25? — No | 0.3000 | lost | 18 | −$5 |
| Spread: Celtic FC (-1.5) — Celtic FC | 0.1100 | lost | 10 | −$1 |
| Will CA Lanús win on 2026-08-24? — No | 0.6126 | won | 30 | $12 |
| Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-08-25? — No | 0.3500 | lost | 13 | −$5 |
| Nottingham Forest FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5 — Over | 0.7400 | won | 5 | $1 |
| Will CSD Macara win on 2026-08-24? — Yes | 0.4200 | lost | 5 | −$2 |
| Will Cardiff City FC win on 2026-08-25? — No | 0.6100 | won | 10 | $4 |
| Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 2.5 — Under | 0.5100 | lost | 5 | −$3 |
| Will RC Deportivo A Coruña win on 2026-08-24? — Yes | 0.2700 | lost | 5 | −$1 |
| Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-08-24? — No | 0.6200 | won | 5 | $2 |
| Will Hallescher FC win on 2026-08-24? — No | 0.9300 | won | 5 | $0 |
| AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to Score — Yes | 0.5100 | lost | 6 | −$3 |
| Will Amed Sportif win on 2026-08-24? — No | 0.7000 | won | 5 | $2 |
| Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 — Over | 0.5300 | won | 19 | $9 |
| Will Málaga CF win on 2026-08-24? — No | 0.5900 | won | 73 | $30 |
| Will SS Lazio win on 2026-08-24? — No | 0.7000 | lost | 68 | −$48 |
| Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-08-24? — Yes | 0.5100 | lost | 36 | −$18 |
| Will FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc win on 2026-08-24? — Yes | 0.1800 | lost | 6 | −$1 |
| Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) — Fulham FC | 0.7300 | won | 5 | $1 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →