Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.1155

across 178 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+47%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

5.7pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

32%

57 of 178 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	56	3%	2%	−2pp
10–25%	38	17%	16%	−1pp
25–40%	23	33%	17%	−15pp
40–60%	16	49%	63%	+13pp
60–75%	14	67%	71%	+4pp
75–90%	16	82%	69%	−13pp
90–100%	15	97%	100%	+3pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$629

2 open positions

Largest position

89%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

position holds half the exposure

Unrealised

$23

against $629 of open value

89% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$62 across 178 positions, with $82 of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale? — No	0.8177	won	70	$13
US forces enter Iran by December 31? — No	0.2981	lost	1,010	−$301
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? — Yes	0.9990	won	7,100	$7
Will the US strike Somalia next? — Yes	0.8410	won	500	$80
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? — Yes	0.0018	lost	50,000	−$90
Will the US strike Yemen next? — Yes	0.0135	lost	500	−$7
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? — Yes	0.0680	lost	295	−$20
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? — Yes	0.0500	lost	500	−$25
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? — Yes	0.0100	lost	1,152	−$11
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? — Yes	0.0113	lost	3,431	−$39
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? — Yes	0.0095	lost	2,000	−$19
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? — No	0.0049	lost	3,500	−$17
Will the US strike Syria next? — Yes	0.3559	lost	118	−$42
Will the US strike Somalia next? — Yes	0.4808	won	141	$73
Will the US strike Somalia next? — Yes	0.0058	lost	3,208	−$18
Will the US strike Somalia next? — No	0.9990	won	2,950	$3
Will the US strike Syria next? — Yes	0.9800	won	475	$10
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? — Yes	0.3200	lost	500	−$160
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? — Yes	0.2000	lost	1,000	−$200
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13? — No	0.2455	lost	1,300	−$319
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? — Yes	0.3100	lost	650	−$202
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? — Yes	0.0474	lost	6,260	−$296
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July? — Yes	0.0039	lost	61,318	−$239
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? — Yes	0.5800	won	3,046	$1.3K
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? — Yes	0.0381	lost	10,427	−$397
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? — Yes	0.5533	won	1,808	$808
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? — Yes	0.4000	lost	500	−$200
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.0053	lost	86,130	−$459
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes	0.0450	lost	15,000	−$675
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes	0.0050	lost	2,500	−$13
Iran full airspace closure by July 15? — Yes	0.0893	lost	16,713	−$1.5K
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? — Yes	0.0725	lost	3,411	−$247
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? — Yes	0.8000	lost	1,698	−$1.4K
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? — No	0.1710	won	2,904	$2.4K
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? — Yes	0.5116	lost	1,505	−$770
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? — Yes	0.1260	lost	9	−$1
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? — No	0.7200	won	20	$6
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026? — Yes	0.1050	lost	180	−$19
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? — No	0.8000	lost	968	−$774
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? — Yes	0.1470	lost	933	−$137
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? — Yes	0.1577	lost	23,249	−$3.7K
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? — Yes	0.3886	won	3,488	$2.1K
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? — No	0.4394	won	1,468	$823
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? — Yes	0.1600	lost	300	−$48
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? — Yes	0.0774	lost	1,291	−$100
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? — Yes	0.0820	won	14,996	$13.8K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? — Yes	0.0126	lost	4,697	−$59
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? — Yes	0.4910	won	1,000	$509
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? — Yes	0.3200	lost	630	−$202
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? — No	0.8700	won	680	$88
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? — Yes	0.6938	won	3,920	$1.2K
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? — Yes	0.0070	lost	2,310	−$16
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? — Yes	0.0615	lost	1,460	−$90
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? — Yes	0.6665	lost	680	−$453
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? — Yes	0.2500	lost	600	−$150
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? — Yes	0.3300	lost	5	−$2
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? — No	0.7562	won	1,300	$317
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? — Yes	0.4100	won	730	$431
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? — Yes	0.1706	lost	467	−$80
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? — No	0.8270	won	250	$43

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →