Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 111 | 3% | 0% | −3pp |
| 10–25% | 40 | 17% | 13% | −4pp |
| 25–40% | 59 | 32% | 39% | +7pp |
| 40–60% | 63 | 51% | 46% | −5pp |
| 60–75% | 43 | 68% | 65% | −3pp |
| 75–90% | 34 | 82% | 82% | +0pp |
| 90–100% | 97 | 98% | 99% | +1pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$20.5K across 447 positions, with $60 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? — Yes | 0.0026 | lost | 5,000 | −$13 |
| Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch? — Yes | 0.0046 | lost | 5,223 | −$24 |
| Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? — No | 0.9874 | won | 1,659 | $21 |
| Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? — Yes | 0.0862 | lost | 352 | −$30 |
| Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? — Yes | 0.5098 | lost | 732 | −$373 |
| Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? — Yes | 0.8300 | won | 10 | $2 |
| Kinetiq FDV above $250M one day after launch? — No | 0.9990 | won | 2,091 | $2 |
| Kinetiq FDV above $500M one day after launch? — No | 0.9990 | won | 750 | $1 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? — No | 0.4753 | won | 1,991 | $1.0K |
| Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.1182 | lost | 3,415 | −$404 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? — No | 0.7230 | won | 1,000 | $277 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.1010 | won | 26 | $23 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27? — Yes | 0.0120 | lost | 2,417 | −$29 |
| Will RC Deportivo A Coruña win on 2026-08-17? — Yes | 0.2000 | lost | 149 | −$30 |
| Will RC Deportivo A Coruña win on 2026-08-17? — No | 0.3645 | won | 750 | $477 |
| Will Manchester City win on 2026-08-05? — Yes | 0.7600 | won | 211 | $51 |
| Will Ipswich Town win on 2026-08-04? — No | 0.2000 | lost | 107 | −$21 |
| Will Ipswich Town vs. Le Havre AC end in a draw? — No | 0.6405 | won | 224 | $80 |
| Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-08-04? — Yes | 0.1600 | lost | 1,326 | −$212 |
| Will Newport County win on 2026-08-04? — Yes | 0.0560 | lost | 20 | −$1 |
| Will Jeju SK FC vs. Bayern Munich end in a draw? — Yes | 0.0800 | lost | 104 | −$8 |
| Will Jeju SK FC win on 2026-08-04? — Yes | 0.1100 | lost | 517 | −$57 |
| Will Kuopion PS win on 2026-07-29? — Yes | 0.1500 | lost | 123 | −$18 |
| Will SK Iberia 1999 win on 2026-07-29? — No | 0.8900 | won | 18 | $2 |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava vs. SK Iberia 1999: Team to Advance — SK Iberia 1999 | 0.0300 | lost | 18 | −$1 |
| Will GNK Dinamo Zagreb win on 2026-07-28? — No | 0.5500 | won | 54 | $24 |
| Will KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë win on 2026-07-28? — No | 0.6400 | won | 82 | $30 |
| Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2026-07-23? — No | 0.2567 | lost | 1,070 | −$275 |
| Will FC Twente '65 vs. Ferencvárosi TC end in a draw? — Yes | 0.2500 | lost | 88 | −$22 |
| Will Hammarby Fotboll vs. RSC Anderlecht end in a draw? — No | 0.2300 | lost | 36 | −$8 |
| Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2026-07-23? — Yes | 0.1806 | won | 690 | $565 |
| Will FC St. Gallen win on 2026-07-23? — No | 0.5975 | lost | 320 | −$191 |
| Will PAOK win on 2026-07-23? — No | 0.0698 | lost | 2,156 | −$151 |
| Will PFK CSKA Sofia win on 2026-07-23? — Yes | 0.0388 | lost | 2,959 | −$115 |
| Will AS Omónoia Leukosías win on 2026-07-22? — No | 0.0668 | lost | 2,315 | −$155 |
| Will Qairat FK win on 2026-07-22? — Yes | 0.0100 | lost | 368 | −$4 |
| Will KÍ vs. FK Kauno Žalgiris end in a draw? — No | 0.0394 | lost | 2,200 | −$87 |
| Will FK Kauno Žalgiris win on 2026-07-21? — Yes | 0.0820 | lost | 767 | −$63 |
| Will SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz vs. Heart of Midlothian FC end in a draw? — Yes | 0.0900 | lost | 2,000 | −$180 |
| Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-07-21? — No | 0.0700 | lost | 891 | −$62 |
| Will KKS Lech Poznań win on 2026-07-21? — No | 0.0400 | lost | 2,550 | −$102 |
| Will FC Thun win on 2026-07-21? — No | 0.5500 | won | 503 | $226 |
| Will Sabah FK vs. Kuopion PS end in a draw? — Yes | 0.0849 | lost | 2,375 | −$202 |
| Will Sabah FK win on 2026-07-21? — No | 0.0800 | lost | 411 | −$33 |
| Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.0800 | lost | 1,000 | −$80 |
| Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.2689 | lost | 5,824 | −$1.6K |
| Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.4404 | won | 5,915 | $3.3K |
| Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.4270 | won | 3,761 | $2.2K |
| Will Mikel Oyarzabal win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.0130 | lost | 107 | −$1 |
| Will Erling Haaland win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.4300 | lost | 1 | −$0 |
| Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? — Yes | 0.3899 | won | 2,969 | $1.8K |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — Yes | 0.3673 | lost | 3,000 | −$1.1K |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — No | 0.8000 | won | 464 | $93 |
| Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? — Yes | 0.1034 | lost | 3,696 | −$382 |
| Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? — Yes | 0.0875 | lost | 230 | −$20 |
| Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? — Yes | 0.5449 | lost | 1,166 | −$635 |
| Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? — Yes | 0.0642 | lost | 2,575 | −$165 |
| Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? — Yes | 0.1900 | lost | 355 | −$67 |
| Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? — Yes | 0.2400 | won | 10 | $8 |
| Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? — Yes | 0.1100 | lost | 418 | −$46 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →