Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.1961

across 364 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+19%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

4.8pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

59%

214 of 364 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	3	4%	0%	−4pp
10–25%	23	18%	13%	−5pp
25–40%	43	34%	30%	−3pp
40–60%	151	50%	53%	+3pp
60–75%	73	67%	79%	+12pp
75–90%	66	82%	83%	+1pp
90–100%	5	91%	100%	+9pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$826

7 open positions

Largest position

25%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

positions hold half the exposure

Unrealised

−$143

against $826 of open value

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$196 across 364 positions, with $280 of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W35 Barueri (Brazil), hard: Ana Sofia Sanchez vs Carolyn Ansari — Carolyn Ansari	0.4747	lost	421	−$200
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W50 Kursumlijska Banja (Serbia), clay: Selena Janicijevic vs Rositsa Dencheva — Selena Janicijevic	0.2200	lost	455	−$100
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W50 Oldenzaal (Netherlands), clay: Beatrise Zeltina vs Britt Du Pree — Beatrise Zeltina	0.3633	lost	225	−$82
US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken — Harry Wendelken	0.4200	won	200	$116
Augsburg: Sandro Kopp vs Martin Krumich — Sandro Kopp	0.7500	won	200	$50
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W75 Bytom (Poland), clay: Federica Urgesi vs Justina Mikulskyte — Federica Urgesi	0.6800	lost	200	−$136
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W35 Verbier 2 (Switzerland), clay: Noelia Manta vs Angella Okutoyi — Angella Okutoyi	0.7200	won	300	$84
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W15 Hurghada 6 (Egypt), hard: Eva Zabolotnaia vs Julia Khramtsova — Julia Khramtsova	0.7400	won	200	$52
US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucia Bronzetti vs Polina Iatcenko — Polina Iatcenko	0.4400	won	300	$168
ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Oldenzaal (Netherlands), clay: Louis Wessels vs Amin Karim Al — Amin Karim Al	0.2349	lost	381	−$90
ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Maribor (Slovenia), clay: Mak Mikovic vs Nik Mikovic — Mak Mikovic	0.4796	lost	200	−$96
Augsburg: Facundo Mena vs Kai Wehnelt — Kai Wehnelt	0.3700	lost	300	−$111
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W35 Verbier 2 (Switzerland), clay: Ana Grubor vs Julia Stusek — Julia Stusek	0.7200	won	200	$56
US Open, Qualification WTA: Robin Montgomery vs Jeline Vandromme — Jeline Vandromme	0.4600	lost	200	−$92
Roehampton 2: Anton Matusevich vs Michele Ribecai — Michele Ribecai	0.5000	won	10	$5
ITF W50 Kursumlijska Banja Women: Anja Stankovic vs Ikumi Yamazaki — Anja Stankovic	0.2100	won	15	$12
Winston-Salem Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Luciano Darderi — Luciano Darderi	0.4000	lost	200	−$80
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W15 Torello (Spain), hard: Juliana Giaccio vs Iveta Dapkute — Juliana Giaccio	0.7800	won	65	$14
ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W50 Oldenzaal (Netherlands), clay: Sina Herrmann vs Amandine Monnot — Amandine Monnot	0.7100	won	33	$10
ITF M25 Oviedo Men: Samuel De Felipe Garcia vs Xavi Palomar — Xavi Palomar	0.5500	lost	5	−$3
Winston-Salem Open: Mees Rottgering vs Tomas Machac — Tomas Machac	0.6700	lost	100	−$67
Monterrey Open: Cristina Bucsa vs Anna Bondar — Cristina Bucsa	0.8100	won	200	$38
Monterrey Open: Darja Vidmanova vs Kimberly Birrell — Darja Vidmanova	0.5200	won	200	$96
US Open, Qualification ATP: Luca Nardi vs Federico Cina — Luca Nardi	0.1200	lost	200	−$24
Winston-Salem Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Luciano Darderi — Mattia Bellucci	0.5700	lost	200	−$114
US Open, Qualification ATP: Luka Mikrut vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo — Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo	0.4000	lost	300	−$120
US Open, Qualification ATP: Braden Shick vs Clement Tabur — Braden Shick	0.7900	won	100	$21
US Open, Qualification ATP: Moise Kouame vs Nishesh Basavareddy — Nishesh Basavareddy	0.5300	won	200	$94
US Open, Qualification WTA: Janae Preston vs Nao Hibino — Nao Hibino	0.6700	won	100	$33
US Open, Qualification ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Dusan Lajovic — Soon-Woo Kwon	0.8000	lost	200	−$160
ITF W35 Trieste Women: Viola Turini vs Valentina Steiner — Viola Turini	0.4900	lost	12	−$6
US Open, Qualification WTA: Whitney Osuigwe vs Mona Barthel — Whitney Osuigwe	0.4400	lost	200	−$88
ITF W35 Verbier 2 Women: Madhurima Sawant vs Angella Okutoyi — Angella Okutoyi	0.8968	won	200	$21
Winston-Salem Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Martin Damm — Martin Damm	0.2400	won	100	$76
ITF W35 Verbier 2 Women: Liv Boulard vs Cristina Pescucci — Cristina Pescucci	0.3836	lost	110	−$42
ITF W35 Verbier 2 Women: Liv Boulard vs Cristina Pescucci — Liv Boulard	0.7800	won	200	$44
US Open, Qualification ATP: Yunchaokete Bu vs Rio Noguchi — Rio Noguchi	0.2800	lost	200	−$56
Winston-Salem Open: Roman Safiullin vs Hugo Grenier — Roman Safiullin	0.8600	lost	100	−$86
Philadelphia: Talia Gibson vs Lizette Cabrera — Lizette Cabrera	0.7500	won	200	$50
US Open, Qualification WTA: Carson Branstine vs Clervie Ngounoue — Carson Branstine	0.8900	won	200	$22
Philadelphia: Simona Waltert vs Fiona Crawley — Simona Waltert	0.4167	lost	300	−$125
Kingston 2: Edward Winter vs Andres Andrade — Andres Andrade	0.8790	won	228	$28
US Open, Qualification ATP: Guy Den Ouden vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri — Guy Den Ouden	0.5000	lost	200	−$100
Winston-Salem Open: Dhakshineswar Suresh vs Marcos Giron — Dhakshineswar Suresh	0.5900	won	200	$82
US Open, Qualification ATP: Spencer Johnson vs Cristian Garin — Cristian Garin	0.8700	won	115	$15
US Open, Qualification WTA: Robin Montgomery vs Kayla Cross — Robin Montgomery	0.7700	won	49	$11
US Open, Qualification ATP: Franco Roncadelli vs Elias Ymer — Elias Ymer	0.8400	won	100	$16
US Open, Qualification ATP: Juan Carlos Prado vs Tomas Barrios — Tomas Barrios	0.8200	won	200	$36
US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Kilian Feldbausch — Vilius Gaubas	0.5770	won	100	$42
US Open, Qualification WTA: Elina Avanesyan vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia — Andrea Lazaro Garcia	0.4700	won	20	$11
US Open, Qualification WTA: Madison Brengle vs Anastasia Gasanova — Anastasia Gasanova	0.5900	lost	15	−$9
US Open, Qualification ATP: Mark Lajal vs Jordan Lee — Mark Lajal	0.7667	lost	300	−$230
US Open, Qualification WTA: Kayla Day vs Julieta Pareja — Julieta Pareja	0.3900	won	200	$122
US Open, Qualification ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Roberto Carballes Baena — Jacob Fearnley	0.7800	won	300	$66
US Open, Qualification ATP: Joel Schwaerzler vs Gustavo Heide — Joel Schwaerzler	0.5000	won	200	$100
US Open, Qualification ATP: Raul Brancaccio vs Thiago Seyboth Wild — Raul Brancaccio	0.4000	lost	95	−$38
Roehampton 2: Alexis Gautier vs Alec Deckers — Alec Deckers	0.9303	won	190	$13
US Open, Qualification ATP: Federico Agustin Gomez vs Aziz Dougaz — Federico Agustin Gomez	0.4700	lost	200	−$94
US Open, Qualification ATP: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Frederico Ferreira Silva — Frederico Ferreira Silva	0.4700	won	200	$106
Roehampton 2: Johannus Monday vs Iliyan Radulov — Johannus Monday	0.7500	won	9	$2

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →