Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–25% | 3 | 16% | 33% | +17pp |
| 25–40% | 2 | 32% | 0% | −32pp |
| 40–60% | 5 | 52% | 60% | +8pp |
| 60–75% | 1 | 69% | 100% | +31pp |
| 75–90% | 1 | 81% | 100% | +19pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $85.6K across 12 positions, with $2.1K of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants — San Francisco Giants | 0.4286 | won | 54,935 | $31.4K |
| Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals | 0.6895 | won | 95,000 | $29.5K |
| 49ers vs. Raiders — Raiders | 0.5000 | lost | 39,131 | −$19.6K |
| Valorant: LOUD vs FURIA Esports - Map 1 Winner — FURIA Esports | 0.3487 | lost | 526 | −$184 |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B — Team Falcons | 0.8072 | won | 105,918 | $20.4K |
| Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs M80 - Map 1 Winner — Natus Vincere | 0.5500 | won | 21,407 | $9.6K |
| Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffs — TEAM VISION | 0.5700 | lost | 6,561 | −$3.7K |
| Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner — Team Spirit | 0.5700 | won | 16,827 | $7.2K |
| Eagles vs. Patriots — Patriots | 0.1799 | won | 20,000 | $16.4K |
| Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffs — Team Yandex | 0.3000 | lost | 17,893 | −$5.4K |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.1841 | lost | 543 | −$100 |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10? — No | 0.1300 | lost | 317 | −$41 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →