Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 1 | 1% | 0% | −1pp |
| 10–25% | 2 | 18% | 0% | −18pp |
| 25–40% | 2 | 35% | 0% | −35pp |
| 40–60% | 2 | 54% | 100% | +46pp |
| 75–90% | 4 | 79% | 75% | −4pp |
| 90–100% | 93 | 99% | 99% | +0pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
53% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $4.0K across 104 positions, with $0 of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 40,585 | $41 |
| Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? — Yes | 0.9945 | won | 10,025 | $55 |
| Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch? — No | 0.9990 | won | 28,899 | $29 |
| Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? — No | 0.9990 | won | 4,098 | $4 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.9930 | won | 10,810 | $76 |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9980 | won | 4,543 | $9 |
| No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.9970 | won | 790 | $2 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9850 | won | 46 | $1 |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30? — No | 0.9990 | won | 91 | $0 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? — No | 0.9590 | won | 613 | $25 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? — No | 0.9660 | won | 8 | $0 |
| US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120? — Yes | 0.9970 | won | 2,836 | $9 |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? — Yes | 0.9960 | won | 3,513 | $14 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? — No | 0.9890 | won | 7 | $0 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? — Yes | 0.9980 | won | 10,000 | $20 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 10,000 | $10 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? — No | 0.9660 | won | 1,541 | $52 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 8? — No | 0.9950 | won | 1,715 | $9 |
| Crude Oil all time high by April 30? — No | 0.9990 | won | 600 | $1 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 8,947 | $9 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.9851 | won | 55,127 | $823 |
| Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9890 | won | 73 | $1 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9700 | won | 10,183 | $306 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9800 | won | 6,487 | $130 |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 17, 2026? — No | 0.9985 | won | 1,338 | $2 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? — No | 0.9990 | won | 5,555 | $6 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? — No | 0.9964 | won | 2,918 | $11 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? — Yes | 0.9960 | won | 4,400 | $18 |
| Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? — Yes | 0.9940 | won | 124 | $1 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 11? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 322 | $0 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? — Yes | 0.9970 | won | 6,092 | $18 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — Yes | 0.9980 | won | 117,137 | $240 |
| Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 3? — No | 0.9990 | won | 18 | $0 |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 30 above $40? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 893 | $1 |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 30 above $140? — No | 0.9960 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? — No | 0.9990 | won | 2,981 | $3 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? — No | 0.9990 | won | 14,057 | $14 |
| Will Opinion launch a token on March 4? — No | 0.9951 | won | 3,959 | $20 |
| Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? — Yes | 0.9860 | won | 527 | $7 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? — Yes | 0.9900 | won | 1,351 | $14 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? — No | 0.9990 | won | 47,886 | $48 |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on March 31? — No | 0.9960 | won | 1 | $0 |
| Will KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) hit 4800 (LOW) in Q1 2026? — No | 0.9980 | won | 5 | $0 |
| Will KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) hit 4700 (LOW) in Q1 2026? — No | 0.9990 | won | 972 | $1 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 24, 2026? — Yes | 0.9988 | won | 14,676 | $18 |
| Will Vertiv Holdings (VRT) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 1,231 | $1 |
| Will the ECB announce an increase at the March 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9990 | won | 22,580 | $23 |
| No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.9979 | won | 11,779 | $24 |
| Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the March 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9859 | won | 26,684 | $377 |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.9730 | won | 180 | $5 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.9950 | won | 83,088 | $415 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? — No | 0.9810 | won | 71,033 | $1.3K |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by March 13? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 3,716 | $4 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 6,839 | $7 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 7,287 | $7 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? — Yes | 0.9980 | won | 761 | $2 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026? — Yes | 0.9980 | won | 14,955 | $30 |
| Will Hoppers be the highest grossing movie this weekend? — Yes | 0.9990 | won | 4,904 | $5 |
| Will Meta (META) finish week of March 2 above $710? — No | 0.9990 | won | 3,983 | $4 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of March 2 above $275? — No | 0.9979 | won | 255 | $1 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →