Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.1971

across 619 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+20%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

3.7pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

55%

340 of 619 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	27	7%	0%	−7pp
10–25%	50	18%	26%	+8pp
25–40%	79	32%	29%	−3pp
40–60%	241	51%	55%	+4pp
60–75%	118	67%	70%	+3pp
75–90%	69	81%	81%	+0pp
90–100%	35	93%	91%	−2pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$151.9K

280 open positions

Largest position

11%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

positions hold half the exposure

Unrealised

$10.9K

against $151.9K of open value

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $109.7K across 619 positions, with $8.6K of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Angels — Los Angeles Angels	0.7700	lost	31	−$24
Houston Astros vs. New York Mets — Houston Astros	0.3400	won	5	$3
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs — Chicago Cubs	0.6400	lost	51	−$33
US Open, Qualification WTA: Susan Bandecchi vs Arantxa Rus — Susan Bandecchi	0.4600	lost	5	−$2
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves — Los Angeles Dodgers	0.1200	lost	76	−$9
US Open, Qualification WTA: Qinwen Zheng vs Elena Pridankina — Elena Pridankina	0.2900	lost	10	−$3
US Open, Qualification ATP: Jacob Fearnley vs Jurij Rodionov — Jacob Fearnley	0.8156	lost	41	−$33
US Open, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Dusan Lajovic — Coleman Wong	0.9639	won	185	$7
US Open, Qualification WTA: Qinwen Zheng vs Elena Pridankina — Qinwen Zheng	0.9100	won	51	$5
US Open, Qualification WTA: Gabriela Knutson vs Ekaterine Gorgodze — Gabriela Knutson	0.9400	won	71	$4
Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals	0.7000	won	10	$3
LoL: White Dragons vs Tung Tung Bogi (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs — White Dragons	0.9400	won	248	$15
Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals — Colorado Rockies	0.4299	lost	30,010	−$12.9K
US Open, Qualification WTA: Mariam Bolkvadze vs Anouk Koevermans — Anouk Koevermans	0.6400	won	5	$2
Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics — Athletics	0.9145	won	419	$36
Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees — New York Yankees	0.9830	won	10	$0
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays — No	0.5273	won	19,975	$9.4K
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants — Cincinnati Reds	0.8590	won	27	$4
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres — San Diego Padres	0.7300	won	21	$6
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners — No	0.5900	lost	9,429	−$5.6K
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants — No	0.5664	won	3,716	$1.6K
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks — No	0.5200	won	1,943	$933
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers — Detroit Tigers	0.0500	lost	18	−$1
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers — Tampa Bay Rays	0.6993	won	136	$41
US Open, Qualification WTA: Lucia Bronzetti vs Polina Iatcenko — Polina Iatcenko	0.4650	won	10	$5
US Open, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs Joel Schwaerzler — Andrea Guerrieri	0.7600	won	6	$1
US Open, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Linda Klimovicova — Anouk Koevermans	0.9455	won	112	$6
US Open, Qualification WTA: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Burel — Qinwen Zheng	0.9750	won	321	$8
US Open, Qualification WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Carson Branstine — Linda Fruhvirtova	0.1700	lost	27	−$5
US Open, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Rebecca Marino — Elena Pridankina	0.7484	won	1,067	$268
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers — No	0.5500	won	15,701	$7.1K
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres — No	0.5900	won	15,199	$6.2K
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins — No	0.5500	lost	235	−$129
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels — No	0.5891	lost	5,273	−$3.1K
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants — Yes	0.4600	lost	32	−$15
Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins — Boston Red Sox	0.6100	lost	19	−$12
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres — Yes	0.4300	lost	349	−$150
Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees — Houston Astros	0.5800	won	40	$17
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves — Atlanta Braves	0.7743	won	344	$78
Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox — Texas Rangers	0.0576	lost	7,861	−$453
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves — Los Angeles Dodgers	0.5211	lost	45	−$23
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets — New York Mets	0.5241	won	160	$76
Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins — Boston Red Sox	0.5572	won	116	$51
US Open, Qualification WTA: Dalma Galfi vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich — Dalma Galfi	0.8372	lost	29	−$24
Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays — Toronto Blue Jays	0.5700	lost	9	−$5
US Open, Qualification WTA: Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Alexandra Shubladze — Alexandra Shubladze	0.8500	won	5	$1
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets — Milwaukee Brewers	0.7100	lost	5	−$4
US Open, Qualification ATP: Moez Echargui vs Hugo Dellien — Moez Echargui	0.0800	lost	5	−$0
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox — No	0.5500	lost	5,197	−$2.9K
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets — No	0.5622	won	772	$338
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers — No	0.5300	won	1,909	$897
US Open, Qualification WTA: Joanna Garland vs Leyre Romero Gormaz — Leyre Romero Gormaz	0.6200	lost	5	−$3
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves — No	0.4989	lost	645	−$322
US Open, Qualification ATP: Moise Kouame vs Nishesh Basavareddy — Moise Kouame	0.6463	lost	57	−$37
US Open, Qualification WTA: Arantxa Rus vs Teodora Kostovic — Teodora Kostovic	0.7833	lost	15	−$12
US Open, Qualification WTA: Suzan Lamens vs Emerson Jones — Suzan Lamens	0.8100	won	5	$1
US Open, Qualification WTA: Suzan Lamens vs Emerson Jones — Emerson Jones	0.2100	lost	28	−$6
US Open, Qualification ATP: Alex Bolt vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz — Alex Bolt	0.3400	lost	5	−$2
US Open, Qualification WTA: Alina Charaeva vs Susan Bandecchi — Alina Charaeva	0.2100	lost	85	−$18
US Open, Qualification ATP: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Daniel Milavsky — Daniel Milavsky	0.5100	lost	9	−$5

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →