Performance audit

Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.

Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.

Brier score

0.1271

across 376 resolved positions · lower is better

Skill vs own base rate

+49%

beating a trader who only knew how often they win

Calibration error

3.9pp

average gap between price paid and what happened

Win rate

51%

191 of 376 paid out

Am I good

Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.

Entry band	Positions	Paid	Happened	Gap
0–10%	88	4%	7%	+3pp
10–25%	31	17%	16%	−1pp
25–40%	23	33%	26%	−7pp
40–60%	57	50%	40%	−10pp
60–75%	43	67%	65%	−2pp
75–90%	69	83%	86%	+3pp
90–100%	65	95%	98%	+3pp

A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.

Am I safe

Open exposure

$36.2K

39 open positions

Largest position

29%

share of open capital in one contract

Half the book

positions hold half the exposure

Unrealised

−$18.2K

against $36.2K of open value

The resolved record

Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised $16.1K across 376 positions, with $2.9K of entry fees paid.

Market	Paid	Result	Size	P&L
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August? — Yes	0.2127	won	8,430	$6.6K
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in August? — No	0.2970	lost	120	−$36
Will Solana reach $100 in August? — No	0.9670	lost	2,079	−$2.0K
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August? — No	0.4435	lost	10,247	−$4.5K
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August? — No	0.5304	lost	37,019	−$19.6K
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in August? — Yes	0.2220	won	3,944	$3.1K
Will XRP reach $1.20 in August? — No	0.1060	lost	188	−$20
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in August? — No	0.7588	lost	1,694	−$1.3K
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August? — No	0.4271	lost	15,669	−$6.7K
Will XRP reach $1.40 in August? — Yes	0.0546	won	510	$482
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August? — Yes	0.0431	won	39,458	$37.8K
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August? — No	0.5865	lost	63,613	−$37.3K
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August? — Yes	0.0620	won	11,388	$10.7K
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in August? — No	0.4215	lost	2,412	−$1.0K
Will Solana reach $80 in August? — No	0.4922	lost	464	−$228
Will XRP reach $1.20 in August? — Yes	0.0281	won	185	$180
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in August? — Yes	0.0153	won	6,158	$6.1K
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August? — Yes	0.0920	won	715	$649
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in August? — Yes	0.4562	won	630	$343
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August? — Yes	0.3900	won	3,142	$1.9K
Will Solana reach $90 in August? — No	0.8820	lost	1,035	−$913
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in August? — No	0.3400	lost	100	−$34
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August? — No	0.1566	lost	7,099	−$1.1K
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in August? — Yes	0.5853	won	268	$111
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July? — Yes	0.3597	lost	29,553	−$10.6K
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in July? — Yes	0.0367	lost	491	−$18
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July? — Yes	0.1325	lost	3,817	−$506
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July? — Yes	0.0390	lost	22,697	−$886
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July? — No	0.5505	won	83,069	$37.3K
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July? — No	0.2680	won	227	$166
Will XRP reach $1.20 in July? — No	0.7297	won	3,628	$981
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in July? — No	0.7058	won	5,733	$1.7K
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July? — Yes	0.0966	lost	79,303	−$7.7K
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July? — Yes	0.0511	lost	20,605	−$1.1K
Will Solana dip to $70 in July? — No	0.5844	won	3,669	$1.5K
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July? — Yes	0.0356	lost	19,528	−$695
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July? — Yes	0.0530	lost	5,902	−$313
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July? — No	0.4930	lost	14	−$7
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July? — Yes	0.0483	lost	8,003	−$387
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July? — Yes	0.0450	lost	67,990	−$3.1K
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July? — No	0.9050	won	4	$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in July? — Yes	0.0020	lost	6,660	−$13
Will Bitcoin dip to $37,500 in July? — Yes	0.0018	lost	2,357	−$4
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July? — No	0.8633	won	2,007	$274
Will BNB dip to $500 in July? — Yes	0.0500	lost	100	−$5
Will XRP reach $1.60 in July? — Yes	0.0388	lost	1,130	−$44
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July? — No	0.8902	won	4,590	$504
Will XRP reach $1.40 in July? — Yes	0.0856	lost	1,762	−$151
Will Solana reach $90 in July? — No	0.9401	won	480	$29
Will Bitcoin dip to $42,500 in July? — Yes	0.0020	lost	1,120	−$2
Will XRP reach $1.80 in July? — Yes	0.0151	lost	1,637	−$25
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in July? — Yes	0.0207	lost	29,624	−$613
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in July? — No	0.8588	won	8,242	$1.2K
Will Solana dip to $60 in July? — No	0.9134	won	6,336	$548
Will XRP reach $1.40 in July? — No	0.9320	won	503	$34
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in July? — Yes	0.0108	lost	622	−$7
Will Solana reach $100 in July? — No	0.9110	won	1,756	$156
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in July? — No	0.9577	won	1,343	$57
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July? — No	0.1823	lost	81,195	−$14.8K
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July? — Yes	0.0297	lost	4,191	−$125

Swipe the table sideways to see every column.

Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →