Performance audit
Am I good, and am I safe, answered for any Polymarket wallet from public data. No account, no API key, nothing to install.
Scoring a forecast requires knowing what someone believed before the outcome, which is why every other tool asks traders to log a probability against each position and then wait dozens of trades to learn anything. That step is unnecessary here. Every fill on Polymarket settles on Polygon with a price and a timestamp attached, so the record already exists: the price paid is the probability revealed.
Am I good
Each row is a band of entry prices. Paid is the average price actually paid, which is the probability the wallet revealed by buying. Happened is how often those positions paid out. A well-calibrated trader has the two columns tracking each other.
| Entry band | Positions | Paid | Happened | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–25% | 2 | 17% | 0% | −17pp |
| 25–40% | 1 | 35% | 0% | −35pp |
| 40–60% | 1 | 42% | 0% | −42pp |
| 60–75% | 1 | 63% | 100% | +37pp |
| 75–90% | 1 | 79% | 100% | +21pp |
| 90–100% | 3 | 96% | 100% | +4pp |
A positive gap means the wallet was under-confident in that band, it won more often than the price it paid implied. Negative means over-confident.
Am I safe
99% of open capital sits in a single contract. A binary settles to one dollar or to nothing, so concentration here is not a question of style: a single adverse resolution takes that share of the book with it.
The resolved record
Every settled position, rebuilt from on-chain fills. Realised −$978 across 9 positions, with $2.5K of entry fees paid.
| Market | Paid | Result | Size | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? — Yes | 0.4200 | lost | 1,500 | −$630 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.7945 | won | 36,768 | $7.6K |
| Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%? — Yes | 0.9922 | won | 13,231 | $104 |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? — Yes | 0.6340 | won | 3,000 | $1.1K |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? — Yes | 0.9337 | won | 2,497 | $165 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.1475 | lost | 18,600 | −$2.7K |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? — Yes | 0.1973 | lost | 35,149 | −$6.9K |
| Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? — Yes | 0.3455 | lost | 203 | −$70 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? — Yes | 0.9540 | won | 10,363 | $477 |
Swipe the table sideways to see every column.
Polymarket only. Kalshi is a regulated exchange with a private database, its per-account endpoints require the account holder's own credentials, so there is no equivalent public record to read. Method →